(Note: I’m aware that this is a copy of my previous article. This is due to a bug in Substack. I am leaving this version up for now as I want the Substack staff to have a look at it and fix the underlying problem.)
Scotland will soon have a parliamentary election. According to an Ipsos MORI poll, the most important issue is independence:
If Scotland doesn’t become independent, we will continue to be ruled by Westminster.
The next UK general election is due to be held in May 2024. The Conservatives are likely to win, for a number of reasons.
Conservatives lead in the polls
Opinion polls show a consistent Conservative lead:
Starmer is uninspiring
The Guardian reports Starmer’s popularity has plunged:
The first anniversary of Keir Starmer taking the reins of the Labour party comes at a very awkward moment considering his standing in the polls.
His approval ratings have tanked from record highs to his first negative ratings in the last few weeks. Last June, Ipsos Mori found Starmer enjoyed a rating of +31%, the joint highest for any leader of opposition since the polling company began tracking opposition leaders in the 1970s.
Starmer’s standing slipped to a still respectable score of +15% in October. But by March, only 33% were satisfied with the job Starmer was doing, compared with 42% who were dissatisfied, giving him a net score of -9%. Britain Elects also put Starmer in negative territory for the first time in March.
One of the most worrying aspects for Starmer was his rating among Labour supporters, Pedley said. “What has stood out for me is one in five Labour voters from 2019 say they are unfavourable towards Starmer and one in five think he is going to move the party in the wrong direction. They don’t think he is opposing the government strongly enough.”
Not only do the public have a net-unfavourable view of Starmer:
His own party likes him even less:
Labour faces structural problems
While the Tory lead in the polls and the unpopularity of Kier Starmer make sobering reading for Labour supporters, they are not the main reason I think Labour will lose in 2024.
Instead it is the structural issues facing Labour, which Labour cannot resolve, which will very likely cost them the election:
Brexit. A lot of Labour supporters want to rejoin the EU, and a lot want to continue to be out of it. Whatever Labour do, they can't please both.
Wokeness. Most Labour activists are woke, and most of their working-class voter base aren't. Again, whatever Labour do, they can't please both.
When a large number of your supporters want one thing, and a large number want the opposite, it is impossible to keep both factions happy. It simply cannot be done. If we had PR, this wouldn't be a problem as Labour would simply fracture into smaller parties. But because of FPTP, Labour cannot fracture. Instead they are forced to stumble on, hoping for a miracle to win them the 2024 election, when it is probably already lost for them for structural reasons they cannot prevent.
EDIT 2021-Apr-08: I’ve had people dispute my assertion that “most of [Labour’s] working class voter base aren’t [woke]”. I don’t at the moment have detailed statistics for or against this point so I will do some research on it, and put up my findings in a separate blog post.
Prediction: Tory victory in 2024
I predict (P=80%, since nothing is certain) that the Tories will win a majority of the seats in the 2024 general election.
This will mean Tory rule until at least 2029. That’s 2 decades of Tory rule, which Scots didn’t vote for and don’t want.
The solution to this is for Scots to rule ourselves: next month vote for independence.