On July the 4th I'll be voting for the SNP. This is an easy choice for me as they're the only pro-independence candidate in my constituency, except the Greens who are rather lukewarm about indy.
Having said that, I expect the SNP to lose seats in this election, and I'm not bothered if that happens. In fact I'm hoping it will.
The SNP have been in power in Holyrood for 17 years, since 2007. They are looking tired and out of ideas and a lot of voters are unhappy with some of the things they've done. This means that, at the moment, they are not the best vehicle to achieve independence.
When parties are in government they have to made decisions. Inevitably these decisions will please some people and annoy others, but the people who're annoyed will be more annoyed than the people who're pleased will be pleased. Over time, more and more people will be annoyed by something the government has done, and they will lose popularity. Therefore it seems to me that the best time for a party to win a referendum (for example on independence) is early on in their government, before they have made themselves unpopular.
By this analysis it is too late in the SNP's government for them to win independence.
The next Holyrood election is due in May 2026. The best result for achieving independence would be for Labour to win this election, and rule Scotland either with an outright majority or as part of a coalition with the Tories or Lib Dems. Then Labour will be in power in both Holyrood and Westminster, and they'll get the blame for everything that goes wrong.
At some future point, Labour will become unpopular, and Scots will turn to another party to vote for, which will very likely be the SNP or another pro-independence party. Indy will thus come back, harder and stronger. And when it does, the start of a government is the best time to pursue independence.
I'm confused; your analysis seems to be at variance with how you say you're voting. If you believe the SNP losing power is the best route to independence, why aren't you voting against them this cycle?
I'm voting SNP and hoping they lose, but not for the same reason as you! I hope the SNP are defeated because the shallow, unprincipled careerists who used to join the Labour Party when I was young are now infesting the SNP.
I can't remember an election where I felt so little enthusiasm. The political class have total control and none of them believe in anything.