(Readers outside Scotland have asked for definitions of some terms and a quick background. So that’s how I’ll start.)
Some terms defined
Holyrood is the location in Edinburgh where the Scottish parliament meets, and is used by extension to mean the Scottish parliament and government.
Similarly Westminster is where the UK parliament meets and is used to refer to that parliament and government.
Indyref2 is a proposed second independence referendum.
Devo max, short for Maximum Devolution, refers to any proposal for greatly increasing the powers of Holyrood without full independence.
The Westminster government is led by Prime Minister Boris Johnson, as he leads the largest party there, the Conservative Party.
The Holyrood government is led by First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, who leads the largest party in the Scottish Parliament, the SNP.
A section 30 order is a statutory instrument that gives Holyrood a temporary power to do something normally reserved to Westminster. The 2014 referendum was done via a section 30 order.
Historical background
Before 1603, Scotland was a separate country from England. But then England's Queen, Elizabeth I died, and the next in line to the English throne was King James VI of Scotland. So while the two kingdoms kept separate administrations they were in personal union under one monarch. Later in 1707, the two parliaments merged, and the united Kingdom became a unitary state, although Scotland kept its separate legal, educational and church systems.
By the last 1900s, many Scots wanted their own parliament again, and following a referendum in 1997, a new Scottish parliament was created in 1999.
The Scottish National Party (SNP) held an independence referendum (indyref1) in 2014, in which Scots voted by 55%-45% to stay in the UK.
Where we are now
In May 2021 there was an election to the Scottish Parliament. The largest party were the SNP, who with 64 of the 129 seats were just short of an overall majority. They make a coalition agreement with the Greens, in which they agreed to holding indyref2 within 5 years, and ideally by the end of 2023.
Scotland is likely soon to ask Westminster for section 30 order for a new independence referendum. Either Westminster will agree, or they will refuse. I’ll cover what happens if Westminster refuses in a separate article; in this article I'll cover an indyref2 with Westminster consent.
A referendum with Westminster consent
When indyref2 happens, I think it should also include a separate question on increased devolution (aka "devo max"). The questions might then be:
Should Scotland be an independent country?
Should the Scottish parliament have increased powers as defined in XXXX?
With the first question being the independence question and the second question being for devo max. Note that the wording must be such that if both questions pass, independence is the outcome.
Why do I want a devo max question? I have 3 main reasons:
We might not win independence
Democracy
More powers now makes independence later more likely
And 1 tactical reason:
Boris Johnson might say no to devo max
Let's look at those in detail...
We might not win independence
Even if Scots don't vote for independence, they almost certainly would vote for more powers to Holyrood. So even if we don't win indyref2, we'd still get something out of it. It's better to get some of what you want than none of what you want.
Democracy
A major part of the case for independence is that Scots should have independence if that's what they want. Well, maybe they don't want it. If the voters don't want independence, but do want more powers, then that's what they should have.
More powers now makes independence later on more likely
In the 1990s when the then Labour government set up the Scottish parliament, they said it would "kill independence stone dead". Labour opposed -- and still do oppose -- independence. At the time they were the largest party in Scotland, but were looking over their shoulders at the SNP, who they regarded as a threat to their dominance. They thought a Scottish parliament would reduce support for the SNP, as Scots would be satisfied with the powers it had and thus not want independence.
Suffice it to say that it hasn't quite worked out like that! The existence of the Scottish parliament has whetted people's appetite for independence. Consequently, I think that if Holyrood gets more powers, people are likely to want more powers still. If this happens, there would be a ratchet effect where Scotland keeps getting more powers, leading eventually to full independence.
Boris Johnson might say no to devo max
If the Scottish government wants devo max to be put to the people, then they would have to come up with a set of new powers, to be negotiated between Holyrood and Westminster, and agreed to by both of them. They'd have to do this because there would be no point in Scotland voting for extra powers and then the UK denying them those powers.
So there would be negotiations between Holyrood and Westminster to decide what extra powers should be offered in the devo max question.
These negotiations would be trap, as Boris Johnson would either:
agree to significant new powers
not agree to any new powers at all
agree new powers that're so paltry and piffling as to be an insult
If Johnson agrees to significant new powers then we (i.e. independence supporters) get what we want.
If he doesn't agree to any new powers, Westminster looks intransigent, which will boost support for independence.
And finally, if he only agrees to minor new powers, it will be taken as an insult, which will also boost support for independence.
If the Scottish government appears to be flexible on keeping a relationship with Westminster (if that's what Scots want) but the UK government comes across as intransigent, then many Scots will conclude that Westminster are not going to treat Scotland fairly, and therefore we must rule ourselves.
What new powers might Holyrood get?
So if there is a devo max question held alongside indyref2, what extra powers might be devolved to Holyrood? Here's a few ideas.
After the 2014 referendum, there was a proposal to transfer working-age benefits, including Universal Credit, to Holyrood. This didn't happen, but the proposal could be resurrected.
Another area is business and employment law, including:
business associations, insolvency, and competition
copyright and intellectual property
customer protection
employment, industrial relations, health and safety, equal opportunities
charities
financial services, financial markets, and money laundering
betting, gaming and lotteries
Because the NHS is already devolved to Scotland, biology and healthcare law is another candidate for devolution. This might include:
xenotransplantation, embryology, surrogacy, human genetics, medicines, medical supplies and poisons
scientific procedures on live animals
misuse of drugs
We could also devolve Communication services and providers, including:
broadcasting including the BBC
the Internet, including rights and responsibilities of websites, such as for storage of personal data
Summary
Indyref2 should include a devo max question, because:
(1) It might be what Scots want.
(2) In negotiating extra powers, Boris Johnson might reveal his disrespect for Scotland, which makes independence more likely.
(3) If extra power happen, they also make independence more likely later.