Links 44: Canada edition
links I found interesting
A new member of the EU?
Seen on Reddit:
Canada should join the EU. This would make Canada stronger, and Europe stronger.
Europe: player or playing field?
Policy Tensor notes that Trump has ended American hegemony:
US hegemony has come to an abrupt end with the world policy of the Trump administration [...] Hegemony is agenda-setting by dominant states for a group of coordinate states who [...] consent to this prerogative of the dominant states.
Even if a new US president wants to rebuild US hegemony, they can't:
US hegemony cannot be revived. [...] even if the administration or a future successor were to reverse course, Americans will not again be able to credibly promise not to revert to the wilful abandonment of hegemony. [Therefore] all other states must work on the assumption that whatever generated this capitulation is a structural feature of the US and could resurface at any time.
Consequently, Europe must now face up to Russia, or be dominated by Russia:
There are basically two possible futures for Europe as a security order. First, it could become a playing field for bigger powers. Second, it can become a polar power in a multipolar world of continental powers and join the ranks of the US, China, Russia, and perhaps India. The question hanging over Europe is whether it will be a great power coordinate with the US and China.
For Europe to become a Great Power requires that it pool its military and foreign policy:
The second requires a political and intellectual revolution in Europe. It requires European states to pool their security permanently. [...] The task for the Germans, the French and the British, is to rise to the occasion and set this agenda for the continent’s security arrangements. That is, they need to act in concert as hegemonic powers.
The choice really is that stark. Either we Europeans pool our sovereignty -- by building a European Military Alliance -- or we will be ruled and dominated by the great powers: one or more of Russia, China, USA or India.
Policy tensor ends by saying:
The money is easier still. In talking about money, and defense industry, and not talking about the issues raised in this essay, British, French and German statesmen are failing Europe. This is the main chance. Everything else is a distraction.
I agree. Europe's leaders need to pool their sovereignty and create a defence and foreign policy union. Everything else is a distration.
Why rent-seeking is bad
Affably Evil explains what rent-seeking is and why it is bad:
Put generally, rent-seeking behavior is when a person or organization tries to get rich, not by creating something that people value, but by using the law to deny people access to resources through any other source than them.
I like to use the metaphor of a troll that guards a bridge. The troll didn’t build the bridge, doesn’t maintain the bridge, and is otherwise utterly undeserving of any portion of the wealth flowing across the bridge. And yet, because the troll has claimed the bridge, it must be paid, lest it club you over the head. The troll is rent-seeking.
The reductio ad absurdum of woke ideology
Sarasaurus posts:
I hope Kieran is OK.
Trump and Putin
Pekka Kallioniemi writes:
Putin is making Trump wait again.
They two leaders were supposed to have met already, but Putin is still at some conference. When Putin is reminded of the meeting, everyone starts laughing - they're literally making fun of Trump and his convoy.
Apparently it is not uncommon for Putin to take the piss out of Trump:
Putin routinely mocks Trump and it gets papered over by translators. Putin was bragging about his hypersonic missiles, Trump said "oh yeah, I wish we got them", and Putin said "well, you'll get them, alright".
Another example is Trump bragging how much he has done for Israel and various stuff getting renamed to honor him. Putin said "they should rename the entire country after you". And Trump didn't pick up on the sarcasm.
Trump is a fool, an incompetent, and a simp for dictators like Putin.
What Next for Scotland?
Prof James Ker-Lindsay and SNP MP Stephen Gethins discuss Independence, Foreign Policy, EU, and NATO:
A sleeping giant awakens
Paul Krugman thinks Trump has wakened a sleeping giant, Europe:
a quick note from Brussels: Everyone I talked to was horrified and terrified by what’s happening in America — but not cowed. If anything the mood was that Europe has to grow up and stand up.
Germany [...] changed the constitution to lift the “debt brake” on a trillion euros of defense and infrastructure spending.
suddenly it seems as if a continent that was always a superpower, but refused to act like one, may be waking up
Make Europe Dangerous Again!
Tomas Pueyo on Trump's negotiating style
Tomas Pueyo writes:
One-Off vs Recurring Negotiation
In real estate, you can play hardball and burn bridges in your negotiations, because there’s always another piece of land to buy or lease, another bank to sour relationships with. You can usually negotiate as if this deal is the last time you’re going to deal with these people.
That is not the case in politics. You have the same 195 countries in the world; they barely change. Of these, there’s only a handful that will matter over the years, and they will remember prior interactions. They will remember for decades. In fact, they will put your conduct as a leader in the context of thousands of years of history. You can’t burn bridges, because they will come back to bite you.
So when Trump tells Mexico and Canada that he’ll impose 25% tariffs, they will try to avoid them, but the next thing they’ll do is try to reduce their exposure to the US in general. This is bad for the US over the long term.
Which pretty much echos me when I said:
The problem with hardball negotiating is that it destroys trust, which is bad if you have a long-term relationship with the other party (such as the NATO alliance).