Scott Alexander has posted about predictions on the Ukraine-Russia war, and in the comments I've added a few predictions of my own, which I thought I'd collate here.
I've put some of these predictions on Manifold Markets so you can bet on them (play money only).
Further aid to Ukraine
I've made some predictions on further Western aid to Ukraine.
NATO no-fly zone in Ukraine during March 2022. One or more NATO countries will institute a no-fly zone over all or part of Ukraine in March 2022. 40%
On Manifold Markets: Will there be a NATO no-fly zone in Ukraine during March 2022?
NATO troops directly fighting. One or more NATO countries will have troops fighting in Ukraine during March 2022. 20%
On Manifold Markets: Will NATO troops fight in Ukraine during March 2022?
Diplomacy
My predictions:
Finland will apply to join NATO in 2022. 65%
Sweden will apply to join NATO in 2022. 55%
Similar predictions already exist on Manifold Markets:
Will Finland be an official member of NATO by 2025? currently at 64%.
Will Sweden be an official member of NATO by 2025? currently at 39%.
Applying to join NATO in 2022 and being a member in 2025 are similar predictions, so I'm not creating separate markets for my predictions.
See also
You may also be interested in my Predictions for 2022 which I made at the start of the year, and my prediction markets at Manifold Markets.