A new poll from Panelbase predicts a 27 seat indy majority.
For constituencies the poll has:
votes(%) seats
SNP 47 62
Con 23 7
Lab 20 0
Green 4 0
LD 6 4
And for the regional lists:
votes(%) seats
SNP 36 1
Con 22 19
Lab 17 20
Green 9 10
LD 6 1
Alba 6 5
In total, indy parties would get 78 seats (63 SNP, 10 Green, 5 Alba). This is not a "supermajority" (that would mean 2/3rd of the seats, i.e. 86), but it is better than the 69 seats indy parties won in 2016.
One difference between Panelbase and the other polling companies is that Alba are polling better. In both the Panelbase polls, Alba are on 6%, whereas in the 4 other polls (by Survation, Ispos MORI, Opinium and Savanta ComRes), Alba are on 3,3,2, and 3% respectively. I suspect the difference is that Panelbase are prompting for Alba whereas the other polling organisations are only prompting for the 5 parties that won seats in 2016.
Time will tell which approach is more accurate. I suspect the Panelbase approach may be better, as the actual ballot paper will of course show all the parties thus "prompting" for them.
Regarding Alba support, Believe in Scotland say:
If our poll had found Alba at 2 or 3% then it was dead, but 6% puts the party back in the game. Alba will need to make a move in other polls to back this up and then the list dynamic will start to change dramatically. For now, Alba seems to have convinced more SNP constituency voters to change their second vote but not universally in their favour and if Alba goes backwards from here then the Greens may go up a few more percentage points.
This is probably accurate, because the better Alba are doing in the polls the more attractive an Alba vote becomes (as it increases the total number of indy MSPs), and the less attractive an SNP list vote becomes (as they will get very few list MSPs). Conversely, if Alba are doing badly in the polls, indy voters may want to vote Green with the list vote (or even SNP).
Of course it would be nice if we had an electoral system where people could just vote for the party they most liked, sure in the knowledge that doing that would be their most effective vote, but we don't as this election is being held using AMS. Still, it could be worse, at least we're not using the FPTP system Westminster uses.
(Full data tables are available from here).