Scottish defence policy 6.2: The Scottish army in 2024, 10 years after we voted to leave the UK
imagining the Scottish armed forces 10 years after the successful indy vote
Sadly, Scotland did not vote for independence in 2014. But what if we had? This three part series answers that question. Part one looked at threat assessments and capabilities needed to combat those threats. This part two looks at the Scottish army. Part three looks at other parts of the armed forces.
A citizen army
Scotland planned for a mass army of 200,000 soldiers in time of war, most of whom would be reservists. The peacetime army would be much smaller, containing a few thousand permanent staff, and conscripts being trained.
With a target of 200,000 soldiers and another 15,000 each for the air force and navy, there were 230,000 sets of uniforms, personal equipment and personal weapons to buy. €5000 per soldier was allocated for this.
(For comparison the Finnish army has a mobilisation strength of 280,000 with 18,000 conscripts being trained every year).
By 2016 the conscription system was up and running. All Scots aged 18 -- unless medically unfit -- have to do a year of service, either military or there was a civilian option for people who preferred it or had a conscientious objection to military service. Incoming conscripts were allowed to choose their preferences for what trade or arm of service they wanted to join, and the armed forces tried to accommodate there preferences, although that was not always possible. For example if there were 100 places for a particular speciality and 1000 people wanted them, some were bound to be disappointed.
The conscript's year of service is split into 3 parts. The first part, which is the same for all new soldiers, is 12 weeks of basic training that teaches the new recruit infantry skills. On completion of this, they attend a passing out parade, where they swear the military oath, which includes these words adapted from the Declaration of Arbroath:
For as long as but a hundred of us remain alive, we will never on any conditions submit to foreign rule. It is in truth not for glory, nor riches, nor honours that we are fighting, but for freedom – for that alone, which no honest man gives up but with life itself.
It is at this point they officially become soldiers, entrusted with the important task of defending Scotland.
The second part, also of 12 weeks, is specialist training in whatever speciality or arm of service they are joining.
After that, the third part, of 27 weeks, consists of joining a unit and practising again and again so the soldier can do his task even in the chaos and fear of battle. This segment lasts just over half a year, so new troops can join a unit before old troops leave it, so that at all times, there are soldiers able to immediately fight.
Initial equipment
Soldiers need weapons to fight. Ordering new equipment of the latest design is both expensive and has a high lead time. In 2016, Scotland needed OK weapons now, not excellent weapons in a few years time.
Taking advantage of the fact that many EU and NATO countries had lots of surplus old equipment -- in eastern Europe this was Soviet-era equipment -- that they were looking to get rid of, Scotland was able to buy a lot of vehicles cheaply, with quick delivery timescales. While not being the latest thing, they were available.
Scotland would've liked to acquire the Leopard 2 tank, but it wasn't available on the price and delivery timescales that Scotland wanted, so instead Scotland bought 200 Leopard 1 tanks, plus other Leopard 1 variants such as bridgelayers, armoured recovery vehicles, armoured engineer vehicles and the Flakpanzer Gepard, for a total of 300 vehicles on the leopard 1 chassis.
Scotland's other purchases included 300 BMP-1 IFVs and 150 BM-21 multiple rocket launchers.
As well as these "big ticket" items, Scotland also purchased some more down-to-earth weapons:
infantry mobility vehicles, trucks and light vehicles similar to the Humvee, to transport troops and supplies
mortars, both 81mm and 120mm, to give infantry their own indirect fires. Because mortars are both cheap and effective, they are exactly the sort of weapon Scotland was most keen to buy
The MILAN anti-tank guided weapon to give infantry firepower against enemy tanks and armoured vehicles. Infantry would also be equipped with the unguided RPG-7 anti-tank rocket, which is cheap, used by many armies all over the world and effective against vehicles and fixed fortifications.
More modern equipment -- Artillery
One major thing missing from this list of arms is a 155 mm artillery piece. While the BM-21 is an effective multiple rocket launcher, with a range of 50km with appropriate ammo, it's not particularly accurate, meaning it is best used as an area denial weapon.
So Scotland needed a 155mm gun, and chose the Swedish Archer self-propelled gun. An initial order was placed for 48, and it was hoped that eventually up to 200 would be purchased.
(By comparison Finland in 2021 had 49 self-propelled guns and another 288 towed guns; many of these were subsequently sent to Ukraine)
As well as 155 mm guns and BM-21 rocket launchers both of which have a range of 40-50 km with appropriate ammunition, it was also considered necessary to have longer ranged artillery systems. Scotland turned to South Korea and bought the K239 Chunmoo rocket artillery system, plus the right to manufacture ammunition for it. This fires a 239mm calibre rocket to a range of 80km, which as of 2024 is currently being increased to 200km.
More modern equipment -- Other vehicles
To replace the Leopard 1, the South Korean K2 tank was chosen. Also from Korea, Scotland chose the K151 Raycolt family of light armoured/unarmoured vehicles. Both the K2 and K151 were manufactured in Scotland from 2020 onwards.
In terms of armoured vehicles, there was need for a more advanced IFV to replace the BMP. For the IFV the Boxer platform was chosen, and a turret was specified that would have a 30-40mm calibre gun, and the ability to fire anti-tank and anti aircraft missiles. The targetting software for the gun would need anti-aircraft capability. Because Boxer has a modular architecture, it was hoped that other variants could also be ordered, increasing the modularity of the army's fleet of vehicles.
The Scottish army also wanted a cost-effective APC. They chose the Patria Pasi. Because this was no longer being produced in Finland, Scotland bought the intellectual property and production line, and started manufacturing them, from 2019 onwards.
Older vehicles that were being replaced, such as the Leopard 1 and BMP-2, were kept in storage, to be used by lower-category units on mobilisation. The intention was to have a small amount of modern capable equipment backed up by a larger stock of older, less-capable kit. (In an ideal world, all units would be equipped with the modern kit, but Scotland was looking to create an effective army on a budget).
Structure of brigades
The US army classifies its brigades as one of heavy (meaning M1 Abrams tanks and M2 Bradley tracked IFVs), medium (Stryker wheeled IFVs) and light (Humvees and JLTV armoured trucks). Each brigade has about 5000 soldiers, and is backed up by another 5000 in supporting units (artillery, combat engineers, anti-aircraft guns, helicopters, etc). the purpose of this classification is mobility: lighter equipment has a lot more strategic mobility than heavier, as you can get it to where you want it more quickly and then supply it more easily, as it uses less fuel.
Finland also has a system of classifying its brigades, by function, which Scotland has adopted:
category A: the best equipped, and able to take offensive operations against the enemy
category B: able to hold the line against the enemy and defend
category C: used behind the lines for defence in depth, for garrisoning strong points and as a reserve that can be used to reinforce category A and B units.
(This is not quite the same as the US system, although it is true that the heavier brigades are more likely to be in category A).
Scotland's plan was for 6 category A brigades, of which 3 are heavy (Leopard 1 tanks and BMP-1 IFVs), 2 are medium (wheeled IFVs and APCs), and 1 is light (optimised for mountain warfare, river crossings, marine infantry, and special forces).
Scotland also planned for 6 category B brigades, which will be a mixture of medium and lightly equipped. Typically these use older equipment that previously belonged to the category A brigades, as they are re-equipped.
Finally there will be 8 category C brigades, all lightly equipped.
That's a total of 20 brigades, which would require 200,000 soldiers to man them if they were US brigades, but since Scottish brigades are somewhat smaller and less lavishly supported, the actual number of trained personnel needed would be nearer 160,000.
By the start of 2022, all 6 category A brigades were fully equipped, and the categories B and C were partially so.
Combat engineers
The job of combat engineers in wartime includes the breaching of enemy fortifications and the creation of one's own fortifications.
In peacetime, combat engineers will be employed improving the infrastructure of military bases, such as buildings, runways, dry-docks, etc.
They will also create large numbers of fortified buildings within military bases, able to house armoured vehicles or combat aircraft (or a wide range of other supplies). Since an enemy won't be able to know based on satellite reconnaissance whether the building contains high-value or low-value equipment, or is empty, to attack the base the enemy will be forced to spend large numbers of missiles targetting potentially empty buildings. And since the buildings will be fortified under concrete (or at least, several feet of of earth) they will have to use a large warhead, which means an expensive missile.
In this way combat engineers will get a chance to practise their job, and the armed forces will get bases built cheaply.
The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine
In February 2022 Russia invaded Ukraine, the same as in our time line.
Scotland, along with other European countries, gave what it had to spare. This was mostly older and ex-Soviet equipment, which Ukrainians would be familiar with already.
By the summer of 2022, it was clear that Ukraine's main needs were artillery ammunition and drones. Like many European countries, Scotland didn't at the time have very large stocks of ammo or ability to produce it. So it set to work rectifying the situation, building factories to manufacture large amounts of ammo, and associated products such as propellant, explosives and fuzes. By mid 2024 these were all up and running, and Scotland could produce 3000 rounds a month of artillery ammo, most of which went to Ukraine.
Regarding drones (see also my previous post on drones), two main types were considered important: short range (c. 5km) electrically powered tactical drones carrying a bomb of up to 2kg, and long range (c. 1000km) strategic drones carrying up to 50kg of explosives. A number of different designs were manufactured, of both Ukrainian and Scottish origin, and by September 2024 Scotland had a thriving drone industry, exporting to many countries around the world, and starting to put AI targetting systems onto drones.
Summary
By 2024 Scotland had a large army (about the same size as the UK's on mobilisation), which was able to fight off any invasion by a theoretical revanchist UK, and contribute to a defence of eastern Europe against a Russian invasion. It was also able to give significant help to Ukraine, and Scottish defence ministers on more than one occasion commented that if all EU countries were helping Ukraine as much as Scotland was, Russia would have been defeated by now.
Scotland had built a significant defence industry, with the ability to manufacture and repair multiple vehicle types and manufacture ammo, and built defence-industrial links with countries such as Finland, Sweden and South Korea. Some of the new arms factories Scotland built were located in the new towns Scotland was establishing, as it was seen as desirable to seed new towns with several big employers.
Dreaming but beautiful nonetheless