So it looks like we're in for another Trump presidency

Europe will probably fail to rise to the challenge

As I write, Trump is ahead by 266 electoral votes to 219, and will almost certainly win the election.

What will a Trump presidency mean? Many will speculate on how it will affect the USA domestically. Here I will talk on how it will affect Europe.

Trump's first presidency was somewhat of a nothingburger. Yes, he talked a lot about leaving NATO and making Europeans pay more for defence, but it was all talk and nothing really happened.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine

This time it's different. Since February 2022 there has been a major war in eastern Europe, as Russia tries to conquer Ukraine, unsuccessfully so far. To demonstrate how unsuccessful Russia's invasion has been let's look at a map from 2 years ago and compare it to today. (Both maps are from Deep State Map).

Here's the one from 6 November 2022:

And here's the one from today:

As you can see, there hasn't been much change in the front line. Ukraine has gained all of Kherson oblast north of the Dnipro river, and a small part of Kursk oblast (shown in blue), while Russia has gained part of Donetsk oblast.

So in the last 2 years, Russia has lost more land than it has gained.

In terms of losses, they have been high. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defence issues a daily estimate of Russian losses to date:

In terms of equipment loses this tallies reasonably well with Oryx's estimate of Russian losses from photographs of destroyed equipment and the estimates of Russian losses implied by the reduction of stored Russian military vehicles in satellite photos, as documented by Covert Cabal, for example here. These satellite photos suggest that Russian stockpiles of old equipment will run out by the end of 2025.

As for Ukrainian loses, Perun suggests they've been maybe a quarter of Russian loses.

In summary, the war has become a war of attrition. Whoever can hold on the longest will win.

What will Trump do about Ukraine?

No-one knows, including Trump himself.

John Bolton worked as Trump's national Security Advisor and later wrote a book, The Room Where It Happened, on his experiences in the White House.

The book reveals Trump's utter lack of knowledge about the world:

• Trump did not know whether or not Finland is a part of Russia.

• Trump was unaware that the United Kingdom is a nuclear power.

His self-servingness:

Bolton confirmed the central accusation of Trump's first impeachment that he withheld aid to Ukraine in an attempt to pressure the Ukrainian government into announcing an investigation into Democrats, Joe Biden and his son, Hunter.

[...] Bolton makes evident Washington's confused and vacillating policy towards the government of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, criticizing Trump for acting so erratically in policies on Venezuela. Ultimately, Bolton suggests, Trump's strategy was only based on his personal agenda and reelection.

Other revelations include the administration feeling they had to sabotage Trump's attempt to meet with Iranian leaders, as they were worried he might do something erratic and off-the-wall:

In 2019, Netanyahu, Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo successfully sabotaged Trump's attempts to open diplomatic channels with Iran.

Worse of all, Trump's stupidity, unseriousness and, frankly, childishness:

Bolton wrote, that Trump "had to be repeatedly talked out of withdrawing from NATO".

[...] Bolton claims in the book that Trump said it would be "legal" to invade Venezuela and that the South American country was "really part of the United States". Bolton alleges Trump said it'd be 'cool' to invade Venezuela.

What prediction markets say

Via Scott Alexander, users of prediction market Metaculus think that if Trump wins, Russia is more likely to expand its territory in Ukraine (by 75% to 40%), and China is more likely to invade Taiwan (by 25% to 17%). So the consensus is a Trump presidency would be worse than a Harris one.

Europe's response

From all the above, plus the fact that Trump as repeatedly talked about withdrawing aid from Ukraine, it is clear that Trump isn't a reliable security partner for Europe.

Therefore it is necessary for Europe to:

1. increase defence spending

2. help Ukraine more

3. form a European Military Alliance capable of co-ordinating military and foreign policy, arms production, and responses to threats such as Russia

After a European Military Alliance has been set up, it would make sense to offer countries around the world the opportunity to join it, because the bigger an alliance is, the more powerful it is and thus the less likely it is anyone will attack it. In particular, Japan has called for an Asian equivalent of NATO, and is building a new fighter jet with the UK, so might well want to join.

Regarding the UK specifically, it should start negotiations on rejoining the EU as this would increase European unity (and also boost our economy); and EU countries should welcome the UK back, with everyone agreeing to not talk about Brexit and almost pretend it never happened. Rejoining the EU would require another referendum, which would very likely be won, but Starmer hasn't gone for it, partly because he wants the vote of Brexiteers (he won't get it -- the vast majority of them will vote Tory or Reform at the next election), and also because reversing Brexit makes the ruling class (and him personally -- he voted for it in the House of Commons) look bad.

If I thought this is what would happen, I would welcome a Trump presidency as it would thus (indirectly) strengthen Europe. But will this happen? Based on the behaviour of Europe's leaders during the first Trump presidency and after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, I doubt it.

Summary

Trump's re-election presents a golden opportunity for Europe to get serious about defence, help Ukraine, and become more united.

If I thought this would happen I would welcome a Trump presidency. But it probably won't.