Sturgeon's legacy is failure
After 8 years of Sturgeon's premiership, we're no closer to independence
In a recent article, Robin McAlpine said, of Nicola Sturgeon:
But there is one thing more than anything I resent her for and that is what she has done for the cause of independence. Between Brexit and Boris and Truss and the state of the UK, it is really hard to think we’re going to get a more propitious time to progress the cause of independence.
Unfortunately rather than do that Sturgeon chewed up that cause, absorbed its vitality and spat it out undigested. She traded Scotland’s chance to become an independent country for the sake of her own vanity and we will never get that opportunity back.
I think this is basically correct. Sturgeon stood in front of an undefended goal and refused to shoot. It may be that we will get our independence (hopefully within my lifetime) but we have wasted a golden opportunity.
How Sturgeon could have achieved independence
Some people will argue in Sturgeon's defence that she couldn't get independence because the UK government prevented her from calling an independence referendum. It's correct that they did, but I think the SNP government could have achieved independence anyway. Here's how:
Firstly, after the 2016 Brexit vote the SNP should’ve made the case for Scotland remaining in the EU (which we voted for), leaving the UK if necessary. Simultaneously they should've made the economic case clearly for indy, to get those supporting indy up to 55% in opinion polls.
This would've paid dividends during 2019 due to the chaos of the UK not being able to agree on what sort of Brexit they wanted. Scots would be thinking more and more that it makes sense not to stay in the Westminster sinking ship.
In the 2019 Westminster election, the SNP could then campaign on a basis that if they win a majority of the votes, it's a mandate for independence, or at the very least indyref2.
They could offer an electoral pact with the Scottish Green Party and the Lib Dems. For the Lib Dems, the SNP could offer that they will oppose Brexit and support STV for Westminster if the Lib Dems support indyref2 (including maybe a separate devo max question) for Scotland.
(I don't know whether the Greens or Lib Dems would've taken them up on the offer, but if they didn't it would make the SNP look co-operative and the other parties unco-operative, which would help the SNP.)
Since the main issue at the 2019 election was Brexit, the SNP could also (together with their allies, if any) have campaigned on staying in the EU, if necessary by leaving the UK.
I think if they done this they would have either got above the magic 50% figure, or just below it (historically they got 45.0% of the vote). Let's assume that happens, and that Johnson also wins UK-wide and is Prime Minister. The SNP could go to him and ask for an indyref. To which he would obviously say no. Then they could go to the UK supreme court and ask them if they could hold an indyref -- they would also say no, as they did historically.
This process would take us to the Scottish parliament election in May 2021. Having got a mandate for independence, and being denied it by Westminster, and the UK supreme court confirming that Scotland was a prisoner in an involuntary union with Westminster as our jailer, the SNP would be in a good position to argue that Westminster does not and will not treat us with respect for as long as we're subordinate to them. So at the 2021 election, the SNP could argue that since Westminster won't give us an indyref we have no choice but to use the 2021 election as a de facto referendum, with a majority of the votes meaning a mandate for independence.
At the 2021 election I suspect pro-indy parties would win by a landslide (helped by SNP not standing in regions, which loses then 2 seats but gains other indy parties c. 15-20 seats) they could then ask Westminster again to begin indy negotiations, or failing that accept an indyref.
If Westminster refuse, then the Scottish Government could go to EU, USA, and UN and make a forceful case that the UK is denying the will of the Scottish people and therefore no longer has any democratic mandate to rule Scotland, so the Scottish Government is asking them to strongarm the UK into accepting Scotland's right to self-determination -- something EU and USA were already doing regarding NI and GFA.
If this happened it would be a major diplomatic row but I think at the end of the day Johnson would eventually capitulate (as he did over Northern Ireland with the EU), and Scotland would get its independence.