The end of the West
USA signals it doesn't see Europe as an ally
In the biggest geopolitical development since the end of the cold war, Trump has made it clear that he's not interested in helping to defend Europe, and Europe is on its own:
The BBC reports that Trump and Putin apparently plan to carve up Ukraine between them (on Sunday 16 Feb 2025):
US advisers head to Saudi Arabia for talks with Russia - without Ukraine
Tonight, Trump's closest foreign policy advisers, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, are traveling to Saudi Arabia to begin negotiations with their Russian counterparts - without Ukrainian involvement. We learned today that Ukrainian officials were not invited to Saudi Arabia, adding to fears that the US and Russia could attempt to impose an unfavourable deal on Kyiv.
[...] As the US and Russia meet, European leaders have been scrambling to catch up with America's plans after Trump's special envoy said Europe would not participate in peace talks. French President Emmanuel Macron will convene a meeting on Monday [17 Feb 2025] between European heads of government, Nato officials and other leaders.
I am reminded of Hitler and Stalin agreeing to carve up Poland between them in August 1939.
Responses
It’s the end of ‘the West’ and of the transatlantic alliance. [...] If it’s a great power world of some sort, then Europe or the EU needs to discover rapidly how to behave more like a serious power than it has up to now.
Trump is doing you a big favour by forcing you to become stronger.
the USA no longer regards European security as its prime concern. [Hegseth's] rationale for this was the need to deter Chinese aggression. The demand for European defence spending to rise to 5% of GDP, and for Europe to take responsibility for its own conventional armed force security, is the quid pro quo for the continuation of NATO: “Together, we can establish a division of labor that maximizes our comparative advantages in Europe and Pacific respectively.”
Of course, if the USA isn't committed to European defence, then Europe has no reason to care about what the USA wants; why should we help them out, if we know they won't help us?
Now, it may make sense for Europe to have a defence pact with Asian countries, such as Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan, but if so it would have to be a mutual defence deal: we agree to help them if attacked, and in return they agree to help us.
What should Europe do?
In the short term Europe should do two things, both of which can be agreed on in the meeting on Monday 17 Feb:
increase defence spending, say to 3% of GDP
form a military alliance, involving common defence
Both of these measures could be proposed and then agreed up on by the countries willing to do so (there's no point in trying to get unanimity at a meeting of 30+ countries, so don't even try. In fact it's positively harmful to aim for unanimity, because when you do, you just get a watered-down statement with no substance to it).
In the long term, Europe needs to form permanent structures to enable better co-ordination on international foreign policy and defence crises. I have detailed this further in my plan for a European Military Alliance.
Further reading
What Comes After ‘the West’ and Where Now for Europe? by Kirsty Hughes
Trump's Doing Europe a Big Favor -- by making it clear USA won't fight for Europe
Time for Europe to become a global force by Paul Mason
German Submission to the Americans, 1944-2025, Policy Tensor