What Labour should do

in order to prevent a future Tory government from dismantling their policies

Labour are almost certain to win the general election on 4th July. What should Labour do, on winning the election? Let’s assume their objectives are:

(1) to push through reforms that help ordinary people

(2) to prevent the Tories from ever undoing these reforms unless they have the support of most voters

What follows is a plan that allows Labour to continue governing into at least a second term, and makes it harder for any future Tory government to dismantle Labour’s policies unless they have popular support. Note that I am not saying that the below are the “objectively best” things to do, or what I personally would do; I’m merely trying to answer what Labour should do if they want to achieve the two things listed.

Choose reforms that don't cost much money

In contrast to the situation when Tony Blair came to power in 1997, money will be tight after the next general election, as 14 years of Tory misrule have fucked the economy.

It is very easy to be popular when you have money to give away but harder when you don't. For this reason I expect Labour to have a short honeymoon period. Starmer doesn't want to be a one-term prime minister, and frankly another period of Tory rule would be a disaster for the UK, so Starmer needs to do everything he can to remain popular.

Because money is tight, Starmer should tell all ministers and government departments to look for measures that improve people's lives (or make the government popular), but which don't cost much money. Ministers will be told that they can have more money only when they've identified and implemented these measures.

Affordable housing should be a very high priority

On the subject of measures that improve people's lives, make the government popular, and don't cost money, affordable housing should be at or near the top of the list.

Houses are not expensive because they are intrinsically expensive to build, they are expensive because supply is artificially restricted.

Labour could buy a load of land (compulsorily purchased at the rate for agricultural land), have housebuilders build houses on it, sell some of the houses to first-time buyers for the cost building the house plus the land plus a bit extra for connection to services. The rest of the houses could be let out by social landlords such as local councils or housing associations, at a rent that pays for the cost of building them.

The housebuilding will also cause lots of economic activity: not just building the houses, but people buying furniture etc when they move in. This will boost the economy.

In order to build lots of houses, Labour will have to do something about the planning system that makes it hard to build them. Fortunately this in itself is a reform that doesn't cost money.

In a poll, 71% of people supported building housing in their local area provided the houses are affordable to local people.

Make clear the extent of Tory corruption

In a poll in 2023, most voters said the government was institutionally corrupt:

However, according to our poll 53% of voters told pollsters Omnisis that they agreed with the statement that the UK Government is now ‘institutionally corrupt’, with just 15% disagreeing.

The poll also found that most voters believe that corruption in Government has got worse in the UK over recent years. 57% said they believed the level of corruption in Government had increased in their lifetime, with only seven per cent saying it had decreased instead.

Labour should get the police to launch full-scale investigations into Tory corruption, such as VIP lanes for Covid contracts, where Tory donors and friends made a fortune selling shoddy goods at high prices to the NHS.

They should also make sure all such investigations including trials and convictions are well publicised. This can be done by making sure the BBC is under government control and that it publicises the things the government wants it to.

Labour should time things so that every month or so there are new revelations about Tory corruption. Bonus points if senior Tories are on trial during the 2028/2029 general election.

It goes without saying that Starmer should ruthlessly stamp out any corruption in Labour MPs or ministers.

Change the constitution, to bake in reforms

Doing good things is all very well, but what happens if the Tories come in and reverse all these changes?

One way to avoid this is to produce a law saying that if a measure is passed by a referendum it can only be reversed by another referendum, making the will of the people clearly more important than the will of parliament. This constitutional change would be put to the people in a referendum. I’ll assume here that it passes, as it probably would.

Starmer could then put renationalising utilities such as water, electricity and gas to the people in a referendum -- they will probably support this as who doesn't want lower bills? A future Tory government would then be unable to reverse it without another referendum. Nationalising trains, water, and energy is popular with the public, so it should be easy for Labour to get a referendum passed:

Proportional representation

Starmer is against this since he wants all power to go to the Labour party -- i.e. himself. But most Labour members support PR, and Labour will not be in power forever. They will probably win a 2nd term, but there are no certainties after that.

So if Labour want to minimise the chances of a Conservative government overturning their polices without popular support, their best bet would be to hold a referendum on proportional representation at the same time as the 1st general election under a Labour government, i.e. in 2028 or 2029. This will ensure that Labour will benefit from 2 terms of rule with a majority in parliament (under FPTP) while the Tories have to fight future elections under PR (where it will be hard for them to rule except as part of a coalition).

The PR referendum should specify a method of PR (such as STV) and be fully-worked out, with no extra legislation needed to implement it. That means it will still go through even if the Tories unexpectedly win in 2028/2029.

PR is popular with voters so a referendum on it should pass:

Avoid unforced errors

This applies to any government: avoid doing things that will be unpopular, unless you have to. Good recent examples of what not to do are Boris Johnson breaking his own Covid rules, or Liz Truss crashing the economy with her stupid budget.

Because the Tories are unpopular, Labour will probably win a 2nd term. But this is by no means certain, and Labour should avoid making unforced errors to make it more likely.

While Starmer will probably not fuck up as spectacularly as Johnson or Truss, there are issues he is weak on.

For example, most voters want less immigration and hardly any want more, but Labour activists are considerably to the left of the general public on this:

Starmer has said he will scrap the Rwanda scheme. I think is is a mistake and he should instead say he will keep it for the time being to see if it works. Starmer’s greatest weakness is in being thought soft on illegal immigration. He is hemmed in on this issue because the views of Labour activists are much more pro-immigration than the general public.

If I was Starmer I would have a referendum on whether foreigners who commit crimes resulting in a prison sentence should be deported, regardless of whether judges think it is safe to do so. I doubt that Starmer would have the balls to hold such a referendum, however, despite the fact that it would be popular.

Another example is foreign policy: Starmer has been a good deal more pro-Israel than Labour voters want, given they (and the general public) are more sympathetic to the Palestinian cause than the Israeli one:

Again, being pro-Israel is an unforced error. Starmer should note that it was conflict in the middle east that did for Blair's popularity -- specifically, taking part in the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 was very unpopular.

Starmer is not particularly well liked — people will vote Labour because they’re against the Tories not for any love of Starmer. And as I’ve mentioned above, the lack of fiscal headroom will mean Labour will have to make some unpopular decisions on tax and spending. Thus Starmer doesn’t have any excess popularity to spend on deliberately choosing to do things that’re unpopular. So he shouldn’t.

Summary

Labour should concentrate on reforms that don't cost much money.

They should bake-in policies with a law that means anything passed by a referendum can only be undone by a referendum and not by parliament, and make sure some of their policies, such as nationalising utilities, or proportional representation are passed by referendum.

With PR, it will be impossible for a future Tory government to get a majority in parliament unless they have almost a majority of the votes, making it harder for them to reverse Labour policies.

Finally, Labour should avoid unforced errors.