Why Scotland should leave the UK and join the EU

Scotland should a part of a larger union, a *European* union.

I'm sometimes asked by Brexiteers, “Why do you want independent Scotland to join the EU? Doesn't that just mean exchanging one master for another?” (Often there is the implied assumption that Brussels would be a worse master than Westminster).

I think this is a serious question, one that's worth answering. I also think Scottish independence is very much like Brexit, in that both are asking "is a smaller unit better off as part of a larger unit?"

And the answer is: it depends. There are advantages to being part of a larger unit, and disadvantages.

Advantages of being part of a larger unit

A larger unit has a larger internal market, which helps its economy: it can have larger production runs of goods and can manufacture a wider range of goods itself.

A larger unit typically has more resources: money, people, raw materials.

A larger unit has more presence on the world stage, since other countries have to care about its opinion. For example, if the USA boycotted Chinese goods, China would care very much. But if Andorra boycotted Chinese goods, China would hardly notice.

A larger unit is typically able to get better terms in trade negotiations, partly because it can use the implied threat of not buying the other party's goods.

A larger unit has big advantages in a war: in protracted conflicts between great powers, the one with the most resources usually wins. This is true of cold wars as well as hot wars.

A larger unit has more resources for big capital-intensive projects such as satellite navigation, chip fabs, AI research, etc.

Because of all these advantages a larger unit isn't going to get pushed around so much by other powers. This is important because we are moving out of a period of US hegemony, towards a multipolar world, a world which is essentially an anarchy because there is no global policeman. (And when the USA was a global policeman, it was, like all great powers, more interested in its own selfish interests than the world's).

Disadvantages to being part of a larger unit

The main disadvantage of being part of a large unit is the smaller unit loses some autonomy. It has to obey the larger unit's rules. How onerous this is depends on what these rules are.

Scotland's choice: UK or EU

Scotland has a choice of being part of two unions: the United Kingdom, or the European Union. (It could also choose to be part of neither, but I think the advantages of being part of a larger unit make that an unattractive option).

Let's look at the advantages first. The EU is a lot bigger than the UK, having about 6 to 7 times as much GDP and population. Clearly the EU wins on size.

Now let's look at the disadvantages. The EU also wins there because it gives its members more autonomy than the UK. To see this, let's look at different areas of public policy in turn.

Sovereignty

As a member state of the EU, UK could choose to leave at any time. It didn't have to get the EU's permission.

However Westminster's position is that Scotland needs to get Westminster's approval to hold an independence referendum. (This has not been tested in the courts, so might not be the legal position.)

Scotland could certainly not leave the UK without holding an independence referendum; whereas the UK could have left the EU without a referendum, if it chose to (this would have been an unusual choice and would have probably caused a UK constitutional crisis, but nothing in the EU's rules would prevent it.)

The economy

the UK controls large parts of Scottish public spending, equal to about 20-25% of Scotland's GDP. The EU on the other hand only spends about 1% of its members' GDP.

the UK controls a vast amount of the Scottish economy. Most taxes are determined by Westminster: income tax (mostly), national insurance, corporation tax, VAT, inheritance tax, etc. The EU by contrast has very little control over its members' tax policies, other than ensuring VAT is within broad limits, and customs duties.

The UK controls a large part of the benefits system in Scotland, including Universal Credit. An independent Scotland in the EU would have full control over this, so for example it could, if it wanted to, introduce a UBI.

Defence

The UK controls Scotland's defences. But in the EU, Scotland would gain near-total control over its armed forces.

International relations

The UK controls all of Scotland's international relations.

But in the EU, Scotland would be able to have its own foreign policy. Obviously it would have to adhere to EU trade rules (the EU is first and foremost a trading bloc), but other than that it can control its own international relations.

Some other powers reserved to Westminster

If Scotland was in the EU, most powers and laws would be controlled by Scotland. However, with Scotland in the UK, many policy areas -- over and above the things we've listed above -- are reserved to Westminster. These include:

• the Crown and the Constitution

• broadcasting

• immigration and nationality

• navigation (including merchant shipping)

• submarine cables

• wireless telegraphy

• aerial navigation

• lighthouses

• currency

• treason

• registration and funding of political parties

• the Civil Service

• financial services, financial markets, and money laundering

• scientific procedures on live animals

• betting, gaming and lotteries

• emergency powers

• extradition

• charities

• business associations, insolvency, and competition

• copyright and intellectual property

• customer protection

• employment, industrial relations, health and safety, equal opportunities

• xenotransplantation, embryology, surrogacy, human genetics, medicines, medical supplies and poisons (these are surprising given the NHS is devolved)

• personal data

• public records

• public sector information

• Ordnance Survey

Summary: EU is a better choice than UK

There are both advantages and disadvantages for a smaller unit in joining a larger unit.

The advantage is size: the EU is bigger than the UK, so the EU is as better choice for Scotland there.

The disadvantage is the smaller unit has to obey the larger unit's rules: the UK's rules are more onerous than the EU's, so the EU is the better choice for Scotland there.

In conclusion, Scotland is better off in the EU than the UK; being a member of the EU has more advantages and fewer disadvantages than the other union (the UK) that Scotland has to choose from.

See also

• How Scottish independence negotiations might go