Election 2026

my thoughts on the elections in Scotland and UK

It's election day again. I'll be voting SNP for my constituency vote. As for the regional vote…

I haven’t decided yet how I’ll be voting with my regional list vote. It won’t be the SNP since because of how the AMS voting system works, that would be a wasted vote. I’ll probably vote for the Greens. I will certainly vote for a pro-independence party.

Predicting the election results

In terms of changes in votes and seats, I expect the SNP to do about as well as they did last time. They’ll pick up some constituency seats as the unionist vote is more divided. They’ll probably lose some vote share in the list vote, as pro-independence voters conclude (correctly) that voting SNP is a waste there.

The biggest winners in vote share will be Reform. The Greens will also increase their vote share. Both Labour and the Tories will do badly. The Lib Dems will gain slightly.

The picture in England will be similar: Reform and Greens gaining vote share, Labour and the Tories losing it, the Lib Dems gaining slightly.

In Wales the big winners will probably be Plaid Cymru, who will become the biggest party in the Senedd. As elsewhere, Labour and the Tories will do badly.

Will Starmer go?

I think it’s unlikely that Starmer will voluntarily decide to resign.

What’s much more likely is a lot of Labour MPs will be looking at what’s happened in their own constituencies, and making the calculation that they will be more likely to keep their seat at the next election with a different prime minister.

Prospects for independence

First Minister John Swinney (on the right in the picture above) says an independence referendum could be held in 2028:

Scotland could have a second independence referendum as soon as 2028, First Minister John Swinney has said.

The SNP leader [...] said it was “perfectly conceivable” that a vote on the constitution could be held within two years.

Green co-leader Ross Greer said Scotland’s future should be “in Scotland’s hands”.

But Labour leader Anas Sarwar said next month’s election was “not about independence”, while Conservative chief Russell Findlay said the break-up of the UK would be an “unmitigated disaster”.

Reform UK’s Scottish leader, Malcolm Offord, said another referendum would be “divisive” - but did not rule out a future vote if support for a Yes vote reaches 60%.

If the SNP win a majority of seats, they will ask Starmer for an indyref.

Starmer will say no. Westminster calculate (correctly in my opinion) that they would probably lose an indyref, and very much want to keep control of Scotland, regardless of what Scots want. Therefore they will use any excuse that comes to hand, anything that sounds vaguely plausible, to deny Scotland the ability to choose its own way.

(In 2014 Westminster granted Scotland an indyref, even though the SNP had in the 2011 election only got 45.4% of the constituency vote and 44% of the list vote -- but only because then prime minster David Cameron calculated he would easily win it. When indy got ahead in an opinion poll, the Westminster ruling class collectively shat themselves and came up with their “vow” to con Scottish voters into staying with the union.)

So if the SNP win a majority of seats but not votes, Starmer will point to the lack of an SNP majority of votes, and give that as the reason not to hold an indyref. Similarly, if the SNP win a majority of votes but not seats, Westminster will point to the lack of a majority of seats. And the same logic holds if it was all the indy parties together pressing for an indyref: they would have to win a majority of both votes and seats, otherwise Westminster will use it as an excuse not to hold an indyref.

What Offord says is interesting as it is an acknowledgement that the better indy parties do, the harder it will be for Westminster to deny them an indyref.

So indy parties would have to win a majority of both seats and votes to credibly be able to ask for an indyref. As I have said before I think the best strategy would be for all the indy parties to get together before an election and use identical wording to push for independence, something like this:

A vote for us is a vote for SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE!

If pro-independence parties win a majority of the votes and seats at the forthcoming election, we will have a mandate for independence and we will do everything in out power to achieve that outcome.

All the parties would put this wording on the front cover of their manifestoes and in their election leaflets.

This would prevent Westminster from using the excuse “even though they voted for you, they might not have been voting for independence”.