How to deal with Trump

what Britain must do

Trump's USA is hostile

I recently wrote that the USA under Trump is no longer an ally of Britain or Europe.

Other people agree; for example in a piece titled Requiem For The West, Andrew Sullivan writes that Trump is now allied with Putin:

What [Trump] is doing is not about making a tough peace deal with Russia, recalibrating NATO, or protecting Ukraine’s democracy. He is merely setting the terms of a new alliance and relationship with the criminal Russian dictatorship — directed against the European democracies.

[...] what other conclusion can one draw when the president cuts the Ukrainians and their European allies out of the dealmaking, has already conceded Ukraine’s conquered territory before any talks, insists that Ukraine started the war, that Zelensky, and not Putin, is the dictator, and is demanding reparations in advance ... from Ukraine, not Russia! The reparations amount to a US claim on 50 percent of Ukraine's mineral deposits forever.

And Paul Mason says We're close to diplomatic midnight:

Trump is ripping up the Western alliance. Wake up.

This is not just a US grab for Ukraine’s mineral wealth. The USA is in direct competition with European attempts to both develop their own AI industry, strategic geopolitical autonomy and an independent economic relationship with Ukraine.

Trump’s goal is a strategic deal with Putin, reviving the ethno-nationalist regime as a partner in the carve up of Europe.

So it looks like Europe is standing alone against Russia. In that case, we — Europe, and in particular Britain — had better put all our efforts into winning.

Trump wants to bully Europe into making economic concessions

Sullivan's article continues:

Trump wanted Zelensky to sign away half his country’s mineral rights to the US in perpetuity before he had asked anything of Putin. And he gave Zelensky three hours to read and sign it.

Zelensky obviously was never going to sign such a one-sided treaty, one that gives up a lot in return for nothing. And even if he had, the Ukrainian parliament would never have ratified it. That Trump made the offer indicates that he is both a bully and stupid.

Overall, Trump is not an ally of Europe. Instead, he is an enemy of Europe: he wants us weakened so we are America's vassals and he can plunder our economies. It's quite likely that before the year is out Trump will make Starmer an offer he believes Starmer can't refuse: that the US healthcare industry gets to plunder Britain's NHS. How Starmer replies will certainly test what he is made of.

After what the president and vice president have said this week [...] NATO is effectively over. No one can even faintly believe that the US under Trump would abide by Article 5 to defend another member state. Trump has just told the Baltic states: you’re on your own now.

Again, I agree. No sane rational person would put any trust in Trump upholding NATO's Article 5.

Trump's worldview is:

It’s not just the end of NATO, but a new doctrine of US power. That doctrine now reflects Trump’s deepest conviction: that might is right, that weak countries should surrender to strong ones, and that this is in America’s interests, because we are the strongest. Trump’s aggression toward Canada, Panama, Gaza, and Denmark is not just trolling the libs. It’s of a piece with his view that the strong should always control and bully and plunder the weak. [...] Trump has effectively thrown in the towel; and handed large swathes of the world to Putin, Xi, and, to a lesser extent, Netanyahu — the only world leaders he respects and understands.

Since Trump is a bully, it is necessary to deal with him in an appropriate way.

How to deal with bullies

If you are dealing with anyone you have to talk to them in a way that makes sense to them both emotionally and cognitively.

This reminds me of something that happened to me. I was sitting with a friend in a public park eating fish and chips. Two men approached us, and asked us to give them money so they could afford train tickets to go back to England (this happened in Edinburgh). They did so in a manner that could either be described as aggressive begging or as demanding money with menaces; indeed my friend was sufficiently concerned to phone the police. I didn't at first say anything, because my mouth was full of food; and while I was eating my friend was talking with them.

By the time I had finished eating, I was quite annoyed with them. They said something to me -- I forget what -- and I replied with a loud "Fuck off!". This caused an immediate change in their demeanour; they now became friendly towards me.

The moral of this story is when dealing with bullies and arseholes, don't attempt to appease them or supplicate to them. Doing so just makes you look weak and will cause them to up their demands. Instead, you should come across as strong, decisive and unlikely to give in to threats.

What Britain should do

Paul Mason's article begins by pointing out how dangerous the situation is, that that many don't yet know it:

There are three kinds of people in Western politics right now. People who understand that Trump just blew up the post-1945 order; people who suspect he did but are hoping that “the system” will sort it out; and people going about their business in blyth ignorance, passing laws, issuing press releases, staging photo ops as if our democracy and way of life were not in severe danger.

What can we do? The number one thing I want to see happen is European politicians levelling with their electorates: hour by hour, day by day. Trump's decision to blow up the Western alliance is an attack on all of us.

I agree with this. The situation is serious, but I think if politicians are honest with the people, the people will respond favourably. But if politicians try to pretend there is nothing wrong and dealing with America is just business as usual, they will look weak not just to the British people but to the US government.

I'd like to see Starmer do a broadcast where he points out how serious the situation is and what he intends to do about it. Even better would be if it was a joint broadcast with Tory leader Kemi Badenoch and Lib Dem leader Ed Davey, where they emphasized that despite their differences on many issues, they were all united on this.

And at some point Western governments need to use raw power to carve out a position in the negotiations.

The UK now has to rearm. Not to 3% of GDP but more like 5 or 6%,

3% would be an immediate first target. UK currently spends 2.3% on defence and another 0.7% on foreign aid. Just redirect that 0.7% to aid for Ukraine, and that's the 3% target made up immediately.

Defence spending probably could not absorb 5-6% of GDP immediately, so that could happen later.

Britain should immediately announce the increase to 3%+, that we remain firmly behind Ukraine and that we will "under no circumstances" feel bound by any treaty negotiated by others without us.

Do it right and the economy will be booming in 18 months time, and Reform UK will look like a sorry bunch of Putinist puppets, closer to the enemy than the Union flag.

If Farage and Reform are on the side of Trump/Putin, they should be tried for treason. UK should pass a law noting that Russia is an enemy, has been fighting an undeclared war against us for decades now, and that any verbal or practical support for them amounts to treason.

When Russia protests against this -- which they will -- break off diplomatic relations, as that looks strong. As a nice rhetorical touch, tell Putin that any future communication with him will be on the end of a missile.

We are going to need tactical nuclear weapons, because we can no longer rely on the USA.

Indeed. It might also make sense for us to provide tactical nukes to European countries that border Russia, under a dual key arrangement.

Britain should also promote closer ties with Europe. A referendum on rejoining the EU would be a good idea, and would almost certainly be won, especially if the government can credibly present both Russia sand America as hostile.

Finally, Foreign Secretary David Lammy should stop saying we have a "special relationship" with the USA. We didn't before Trump was in power, and we certainly don't now. Saying we do makes him look stupid and out of touch.

Sources

• Requiem For The West -- Andrew Sullivan

• We're close to diplomatic midnight -- Paul Mason