I don’t think Reform will take any seats at Holyrood. There were no seats during the general election that they were remotely close to taking from the Tories, let alone the SNP or Labour.
Bear in mind they only need c. 5% of the vote to win a regional top-up seat, and they got 7% across Scotland in the recent election. So while they probably won't win any constituencies, they might win top-up seats.
Which makes me think that because of the way AMS allocates top up seats (I've done a write-up here: https://pontifex.substack.com/p/voting-systems-additional-member ) it may make sense for people who vote Tory in the constituency vote to give their regional vote to Reform, and for the same reason it may make sense for people who vote SNP in the constituency to vote Alba in the regional vote. Doing do would maximise the efficiency of their vote.
I don’t think Reform will take any seats at Holyrood. There were no seats during the general election that they were remotely close to taking from the Tories, let alone the SNP or Labour.
Bear in mind they only need c. 5% of the vote to win a regional top-up seat, and they got 7% across Scotland in the recent election. So while they probably won't win any constituencies, they might win top-up seats.
Which makes me think that because of the way AMS allocates top up seats (I've done a write-up here: https://pontifex.substack.com/p/voting-systems-additional-member ) it may make sense for people who vote Tory in the constituency vote to give their regional vote to Reform, and for the same reason it may make sense for people who vote SNP in the constituency to vote Alba in the regional vote. Doing do would maximise the efficiency of their vote.
Good point - I hadn’t considered that aspect.