Links 20: Putin goes limp

More on Putin's war of aggression against Ukraine

Putin goes limp

From @JackRai22050401:

Visa and mastercard exit Russia

Visa and Mastercard are withdrawing from Russia:

Visa and Mastercard suspended their operations in Russia on Saturday as companies continue withdrawing from the nation over its invasion of Ukraine.

Visa will work with its clients and partners in Russia to immediately cease all transaction over the coming days, and Visa cards issued outside of Russia will no longer work inside the country, according to the statement.

Cards issued by Russian banks will no longer be supported by Mastercard, and cards issued outside of the country will no longer work at Russian merchants or ATMs, the statement said.

Ukraine can win

Good Times Bad Times points out that Ukraine can win, because Ukraine is getting stronger with more reserves being called up, weapon deliveries, and foreign fighters; while Russia is taking casualties, troops are surrendering, and stocks of high-tech weapons such as the Kalibr cruise missile are being used up.

Furthermore a lot of Russia's high-tech weapons -- including the aforementioned Kalibr missiles -- contain lots of foreign electronics that Russia can no longer import, meaning they will have difficulties building more and as time goes on the Russian army will become less technologically advanced.

MSNBC's obsession with Trump

MSNBC's Chris Hayes -- who evidently is an advanced case of Trump Derangement Syndrome -- says Putin wouldn't have invaded if trump was in charge.

Hayes: "Putin would likely not have invaded because he did not need to, because Trump was his ultimate gift doing everything Putin himself wanted him to do: elevating Russia, denigrating NATO, delegitimizing Ukraine, without him in the white house Putin took matters into his own hands. Invading Ukraine, putting the country once again at the center of US politics."

His argument is, effectively:

1. Trump is Putin's puppet

2. Putin thinks: with Trump in charge Russia strong and NATO and Ukraine weak

3. Therefore Putin sees no need to invade Ukraine

But this argument ids nonsense, because it was obvious to Putin that Trump wouldn't be in the White House forever. Instead, if Putin actually saw Trump as his lackey (and not the reality, which is that Trump is stupid and out of his depth), he would have thought "this is a great time to invade, since I control USA right now and can therefore prevent an effective western response to my invasion."

Trump supporters come up with a different argument why the invasion didn’t happen when Trump was president: Trump's a strong leader, therefore Putin would never have invaded on his watch. That's why he chose to do so when Biden was in charge.

I think the reality is simpler: Putin probably invaded when he did because he had taken several years modernising the Russian armed forces and now considered himself ready. Who he US president was didn't make any difference one way or another.

Bothe the Blue tribe ands the Red tribe in the USA think of each other as the outgroup and the Russians as a fargroup. They see evey issue in terms of the fight between each other. But it’s not always about the USA! Sometimes countries (such as Russia) do things for reasons other than the USA’s internal politics. But people like Chris Hayes can’t see that.

FSB analysis on Ukraine

Igor Sushko has an "analysis of the current situation in Russia by an active FSB analyst". it makes sobering reading.

The Russian situation is grim:

And what now? We cannot announce general mobilization for two reasons:

1) Mobilization will implode the situation inside Russia: political, economic, and social.

2) Our logistics are already over-extended today. We can send a much large contingent into Ukraine, and what would we get? Ukraine – a territorially enormous country, and their hate towards us is astronomical.

Our roads simply cannot accommodate the resupply of such convoys, and everything will come to a halt. And we can’t pull it off from the management side because of the current chaos. These two reasons exist concurrently, although just one of them is enough to break everything.

With regards to Russian military losses: I don’t know the reality – no one does. There was some information the first 2 days, but now no one knows what is happening in Ukraine. We’ve lost contact with major divisions. (!!) They may re-establish contact, or may dissipate under an attack, and even the commanders don’t know how many are dead, injured, or captured. Total dead is definitely in the thousands, maybe 10,000, maybe 5,000, or maybe just 2,000.

Killing Zelenskyy now won't work:

Now even we kill Zelensky or take him prisoner, nothing will change. The level of hate toward us is similar to Chechnya. And now, even those loyal to us in Ukraine are publicly against us.

Russia is unstable and on the brink of collapse:

Our conditional deadline is June. Conditional because in June there will be no economy left in Russia – there will be nothing left.

By and large, next week there will be a collapse (in Russia) to either of the two sides (for vs against war), simply because current tension (in Russia) is unsustainable. We have no analyses, we can’t make any forecasts in this chaos, no one will be able to say anything with any certainty (in Russia).

(I think he means that Either Russia will undergo de-Putin-ization, or will become like North Korea.)

Russia does not have an out. There are no options for a possible victory, only of losses

The West now hates Russia/Putin:

Now we are stuck waiting until some mentally screwed up advisor convinces the top to start a conflict with Europe, with demands to reduce the sanctions – they either loosen the sanctions or war.

And what if the West refuses? In that instance I won’t exclude that we will be pulled into a real international conflict, just like Hitler in 1939. Our “Z” will be equated to the Swastika.

Russia might use nukes in Ukraine:

Is there a possibility of a localized nuclear strike (in Ukraine)? Yes. Not for any military objectives. Such a weapon won’t help with the breach of the defenses. But with a goal of scaring everyone else (The West).

Here the goal is to nuke Ukraine to scare the West into removing sanctions.

The Russian army would probably refuse to star ta nuclear war:

To offer further cynicism, I don’t believe that Putin will press the red button to destroy the entire world. First, it’s not one person that decides, and someone will refuse. There are lots of people involved in the process and there is no single “red” button.

Second, there are certain doubts that it actually functions properly. Experience shows that the more transparent the control procedures, the easier it is to identify problems. And where it’s murky as to who controls what and how, but always files reports full of bravado, is where there are always problems. I am not sure that the “red button” system functions according to the declared data. Besides, plutonium fuel must be changed every 10 years.

Third, and this is the most disgusting and sad, I personally do not believe in Putin’s will to sacrifice himself when he does not even allow his closest ministers and advisors to be in his vicinity.

Benefits of Boxer's modularity

Tanknology has a good article on the benefits of the Boxer armoured vehicle, in particular its modularity:

The Boxer has a pretty neat party trick - in under 15 minutes you can swap the entire rear portion of the vehicle out for an entirely different one, totally changing its role and capabilities. Its a fairly extreme example of modular design, which is something the community espouses constantly, but never seems to have much of a tangible demonstration as to why its useful. An exploration of the Boxer case study to show why this sort of radical modularity can be hugely beneficial, if made use of properly.

can Ukraine win?

Adam Something asks Can Ukraine Actually WIN This?

My analysis is similar to Adam's: Russia is still stronger than Ukraine, and is still gaining ground, but a lot more slowly than they expected. Ukriane could still win, due to Russian soldiers' low morale and weapon deliveries from the West.

/end/