I think it entirely depends on what you mean by "win".
I think it's obvious that if Russia persists long enough they'll eventually win against Ukraine, so in my mind Ukraine wins if Russia gives up.
It is somewhat unclear what a Russian victory means though. Going in I was assuming it would be annexation of parts of Ukraine, like with Crimea but with more bloodshed. However, at this point I don't think they can avoid losing face without at least establishing a Russia-friendly puppet government of some kind, a government that is going to be unpopular with basically everyone other than Putin.
That said, the invasion doesn't seem to be going well, and having nebulous goals can be useful. In my amateur analysis, the most likely outcome would be the Russians only occupying part of Ukraine, then claiming that "liberating" those areas was their goal all along. I doubt a militarised and disputed Russia-Ukraine border would be a very stable situation, no idea what'll happen beyond that.
> I think it's obvious that if Russia persists long enough they'll eventually win against Ukraine
This does, as you say, depend on what "win" means. Consider if Russia occupies all of Ukraine, but the USA/NATO/EU are united against him and rearming, sanctions have crashed the Russian economy, there's unrest at home, the puppet government Putin has installed has zero support, there's an insurgency across Ukraine with soldiers and collaborators being killed, and there are rumours that the army and FSB want to coup Putin.
Is this victory? I wouldn't want to be Putin in that situation. It may well be that he has painted himself into a corner.
> In my amateur analysis, the most likely outcome would be the Russians only occupying part of Ukraine, then claiming that "liberating" those areas was their goal all along.
If Russia occupied some more of Ukraine then Putin can point to that as a win. Would Ukraine accept peace on those terms? Would the Ukrainian people accept peace, even if Zelensky did? i think he would have a hard time selling such a deal to his people.
One thing Ukraine would certainly not accept is being disarmed. If the Ukrainian state continues, its will certainly consider it an imperative to be well armed against Russia, and this will take precedence over any other policy goal.
The sort of deal I could possibly see is: Ukraine can join EU but not NATO, Ukraine agrees to not have foreign troops in the country in peacetime, Ukraine gets security guarantees from USA and some other countries in the event of another invasion, some other confidence-building measures to prevent a surprise attack by Russia, Russia gets a strip of territory connecting Donbas with Crimea. Sanctions against Russia end.
I really can't see Ukraine agreeing to peace without security guarantees (and further arms supplies from the West). And I can't see Russia agreeing to peace without Putin being able to say he got something out of his war.
A few days ago they were 20km further out than their military manuals suggested they should be. Because they have air superiority they can take their time too. Try watching task and purpose for analysis on Yt.
I think it entirely depends on what you mean by "win".
I think it's obvious that if Russia persists long enough they'll eventually win against Ukraine, so in my mind Ukraine wins if Russia gives up.
It is somewhat unclear what a Russian victory means though. Going in I was assuming it would be annexation of parts of Ukraine, like with Crimea but with more bloodshed. However, at this point I don't think they can avoid losing face without at least establishing a Russia-friendly puppet government of some kind, a government that is going to be unpopular with basically everyone other than Putin.
That said, the invasion doesn't seem to be going well, and having nebulous goals can be useful. In my amateur analysis, the most likely outcome would be the Russians only occupying part of Ukraine, then claiming that "liberating" those areas was their goal all along. I doubt a militarised and disputed Russia-Ukraine border would be a very stable situation, no idea what'll happen beyond that.
> I think it's obvious that if Russia persists long enough they'll eventually win against Ukraine
This does, as you say, depend on what "win" means. Consider if Russia occupies all of Ukraine, but the USA/NATO/EU are united against him and rearming, sanctions have crashed the Russian economy, there's unrest at home, the puppet government Putin has installed has zero support, there's an insurgency across Ukraine with soldiers and collaborators being killed, and there are rumours that the army and FSB want to coup Putin.
Is this victory? I wouldn't want to be Putin in that situation. It may well be that he has painted himself into a corner.
> In my amateur analysis, the most likely outcome would be the Russians only occupying part of Ukraine, then claiming that "liberating" those areas was their goal all along.
If Russia occupied some more of Ukraine then Putin can point to that as a win. Would Ukraine accept peace on those terms? Would the Ukrainian people accept peace, even if Zelensky did? i think he would have a hard time selling such a deal to his people.
One thing Ukraine would certainly not accept is being disarmed. If the Ukrainian state continues, its will certainly consider it an imperative to be well armed against Russia, and this will take precedence over any other policy goal.
The sort of deal I could possibly see is: Ukraine can join EU but not NATO, Ukraine agrees to not have foreign troops in the country in peacetime, Ukraine gets security guarantees from USA and some other countries in the event of another invasion, some other confidence-building measures to prevent a surprise attack by Russia, Russia gets a strip of territory connecting Donbas with Crimea. Sanctions against Russia end.
I really can't see Ukraine agreeing to peace without security guarantees (and further arms supplies from the West). And I can't see Russia agreeing to peace without Putin being able to say he got something out of his war.
A few days ago they were 20km further out than their military manuals suggested they should be. Because they have air superiority they can take their time too. Try watching task and purpose for analysis on Yt.
I do watch -- and enjoy -- Task & Purpose.