Links 42: Trump diplomatic crisis special edition

Trump upsets the applecart, the apples start building a new cart

Germany vows independence from America

New German leader Friedrich Merz vows that Germany must become independent from America:

Germany’s Friedrich Merz promised to “achieve independence” from the US after his centre-right bloc won federal elections

Merz declared that Germany had to fundamentally remake its security arrangements and end a decades-long reliance on Washington, given that US President Donald Trump was “largely indifferent” to Europe’s fate. Merz said: “I am in close contact with many prime ministers — heads of government of the EU. And it must be an absolute priority to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we actually achieve independence from the USA. [...] after Donald Trump’s statements, it is clear [...] this American government are largely indifferent to the fate of Europe.”

Trump/America is either indifferent or actively hostile.

If Merz succeeds, I wonder if history will remember him as "Frederick the Great"?

Will Bougainville win independence from Papua New Guinea?

James Kerr Lindsay asks whether Papua New Guinea will allow Bougainville to become independent:

While 98.3% of people in Bougainville voted for independence in 2019, PNG doesn't want to let go, fearing loss of revenue from Bougainville's mining industry.

This reminds me of Scotland's position in the UK. They don't want to let us leave, because they want to continue stealing our wealth.

Trump's vassals?

Will Europe become Trump's vassals, or an independent power, asks EU Made Simple:

Scurvy makes a comeback in Wales

Wales Online reports:

'I never thought I would see this' - scurvy makes a comeback in Wales

Cases of scurvy, a disease caused by vitamin C deficiency, are rising among children and young people in Wales, a doctor has warned. Dana Beasley, Wales deputy officer at the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health, said it is "tragic".

Britain's descent into becoming a middle-income country continues.

I'm reminded of a story from late last year. The government decided to release some prisoners early because there weren't enough prison places. But then when they released them, they had nowhere to live as there were no social houses. So they were given tents. Apparently, some of them committed more crimes to get back in prison, since at least that way they had a roof over their head.

Things in the UK are going downhill. This is the underlying cause of a lot of support for Scottish Independence.

Europe's army

TLDR News asks whether Europe needs its own army:

Spoiler: yes.

Britain should send troops to Ukraine

Pablo O'Hana writes:

There exists a profound truth: while diplomacy and caution have their merits, there are times when decisive might is essential. Last night, when I saw the breaking news alert that Keir Starmer said he is ‘ready and willing’ to put UK troops on the ground, I felt both a chill run down my spine and a surge of pride.

Then when I saw former Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak publicly declare support for his once-fiercely fought opponent, I thought: ‘This is British politics at its best.’

But they still remain words without weight.

O'Hana is right: words not backed up by actions are empty and worthless.

Erdogan backs Ukraine

Turkish Minute reports:

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said Tuesday that Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty are nonnegotiable for Turkey, as Ankara positions itself as a potential host for talks between Russia, Ukraine and the United States.

Turkey not only has a large army but also a large and innovative defence manufacturing sector.

Part of the reason for this is the USA refused to sell them F-35s. So Turkey decided they needed an indigenous defence industry, including the Kaan fighter aircraft.

Can Europe rely on US-Controlled aircraft?

MilitaryRated asks whether Europe can rely on the US-controlled F-35 aircraft:

The issue is that the software in the aircraft is written by and controlled by the USA which therefore has a remote control off switch for the aircraft.

The only exceptions of this are the Israeli F-35s, which use entirely Israeli-built avionics and the British F-35s which partially use British systems.

If Europeans do decide the F-35 cannot be relied upon, they may instead consider buying the South Korean KF-21 Boramae which is scheduled to begin manufacturing in 2026.

Mick Ryan on Trump's support for Russia

Mick Ryan writes:

What a week! I could only reach back to Lenin’s (reputed) saying that “there are decades when nothing happens, and there are weeks when decades happen” to begin to describe just how transformative the events of this week might end up being. I apologise to my Ukrainian friends for using a Russian saying. Why do I feel this was appropriate?

The combination of statements from the American administration foreshadows a very significant restructuring of the security architecture in Europe, at least as significant as the end of the Cold War. But their comments will have an impact on security affairs globally, as authoritarians interpret Trump’s signals about spheres of influence and his willingness for a grand bargain rather than war.

At the same time, America’s friends and allies will be looking for reassurance from their great and powerful friend while also (if they are smart) developing Plan B national security postures that are less reliant on U.S. support - while also remaining close to America.

Plan B is very necessary as Trump has made it abundantly clear he cannot be relied on.

For example, Australia, like Ukraine, has lots of raw materials. What's to stop Trump from demanding that Australia's mining industry be handed over the the USA in order for Australia to continue receiving US "protection"?

Russians surrender near Pokrovsk

Reporting from Ukraine says that many Russian soldiers have surrendered in the Pokrovsk area, because Ukrainian drone strikes have made it very hard to supply them with food or ammunition. So Russian units are apparently surrending en masse.

This is literally wartime propaganda, so it obviously needs to be taken with a pinch of salt.

However, the narrative put out by Putin-supporters in the West, that Russia is strong and is therefore bound to win, is also seriously unbalanced and due more to wishful thinking than any sober analysis of the facts. Indeed I pointed out last November that Russia controlled less territory than than 2 years previously.

The truth is that Russia and Ukraine are approximately equally matched. Both countries are suffering from war fatigue and the winner may well be the side that outlasts the other.

The first syllable

Andy Borowitz writes:

Trump wants to be a dictator and so far he’s nailed the first syllable

Russia is America's new ally

Meet our new allies: Russia says Alex Finley:

If you’ve followed me for a while, you already know that the kinetic war in Ukraine is inextricably linked to our own security. Given Russia’s inability to confront NATO and the Western alliance directly, Vladimir Putin has pursued a strategy to destabilize our democracies and our unity from within.

It looks like he has achieved his goal. And he did so with the help of the president of the United States.