"Brexit x10" is definitely an exaggeration, at most this is going to be Brexit x2 (leaving UK and joining EU) but that sounds much less convincing.
The UK-Scotland border would still be a massive hassle to resolve, since freely trading with the EU and having a different immigration system to England are some of them main benefits to leaving, but both of those would require border checks. I honestly think that the cost of that (direct and indirect) would outweigh any benefits for Scotland, because I'm assuming maximal incompetence and spite on behalf of the Tory government (The referendum I'm imagining gets approved by a Labour-SNP coalition, which immediately loses power once Scotland leaves the UK). Admittedly, I'm biased because it would be personally inconvenient for me and my friends if there was an England-Scotland border requiring passport checks, and bad for both countries, but I'm pessimistic enough to think it would happen anyway.
That "England - Scotland border requiring Passport Checks". need not be anything like as bad as you believe. Look at the U.S.A. & Canada. Two completely different countries. But we have Nexus. This system allows for simple and easy border crossing by simply swiping a card. Applies to both commercial and non commercial travel. Consider also that for decades, approximately 2,000 people have been crossing from Canada to the U.S.and back to go to work every day. It works well for us and could work just as easily for Scotland / England regardless of EU in or not !! Notice for example how bad Covid was in the U.S. initially. At the start of the Pandemic that border was firmly closed in both directions by mutual agreement. Yet essential supplies (e.g. food) went on uninterrupted. Again, made easier because of Nexus.
> The UK-Scotland border would still be a massive hassle to resolve, since freely trading with the EU and having a different immigration system to England are some of them main benefits to leaving, but both of those would require border checks.
I agree that they would both require border checks.
Regarding the different immigration system, i doubt that the extra border checks will be anything more onerous than people having to show passports at the border control, which doesn't take much time and isn't too onerous.
As for EU, I think that will be done in multiple steps:
(1) Scotland still part of the UK trading system
(2) Scotland leaves UK trading system, joins EFTA
(3) Scotland rejoins EU
All of these will have transitional periods between them, If this is done sensible, there will be minimal disruption. By the Times Scotland rejoins EU -- late 2020s probably -- the rules between UK and EU will have been fully worked out and so not likely to change much.
> because I'm assuming maximal incompetence and spite on behalf of the Tory government
Maybe. I think and hope they won't be. But if they are, we'll weather the storm and I'd put up with temporary hardship to be free from them.
> it would be personally inconvenient for me and my friends if there was an England-Scotland border requiring passport checks
I have friends and family in England so it would be for me too. I doubt the inconvenience will be too much.
It is very likely there would be no physical checks for goods at the actual border and many of the checks will be done via various electronic means. The border will be there but open for unchecked travel to British citizens as there is no reason why Scotland can’t negotiate to remain part of the Common Travel Area in exactly the same way as Ireland has, even post Brexit. Remember a significant proportion of our trade with the rUK is services not goods.
"Brexit x10" is definitely an exaggeration, at most this is going to be Brexit x2 (leaving UK and joining EU) but that sounds much less convincing.
The UK-Scotland border would still be a massive hassle to resolve, since freely trading with the EU and having a different immigration system to England are some of them main benefits to leaving, but both of those would require border checks. I honestly think that the cost of that (direct and indirect) would outweigh any benefits for Scotland, because I'm assuming maximal incompetence and spite on behalf of the Tory government (The referendum I'm imagining gets approved by a Labour-SNP coalition, which immediately loses power once Scotland leaves the UK). Admittedly, I'm biased because it would be personally inconvenient for me and my friends if there was an England-Scotland border requiring passport checks, and bad for both countries, but I'm pessimistic enough to think it would happen anyway.
That "England - Scotland border requiring Passport Checks". need not be anything like as bad as you believe. Look at the U.S.A. & Canada. Two completely different countries. But we have Nexus. This system allows for simple and easy border crossing by simply swiping a card. Applies to both commercial and non commercial travel. Consider also that for decades, approximately 2,000 people have been crossing from Canada to the U.S.and back to go to work every day. It works well for us and could work just as easily for Scotland / England regardless of EU in or not !! Notice for example how bad Covid was in the U.S. initially. At the start of the Pandemic that border was firmly closed in both directions by mutual agreement. Yet essential supplies (e.g. food) went on uninterrupted. Again, made easier because of Nexus.
> The UK-Scotland border would still be a massive hassle to resolve, since freely trading with the EU and having a different immigration system to England are some of them main benefits to leaving, but both of those would require border checks.
I agree that they would both require border checks.
Regarding the different immigration system, i doubt that the extra border checks will be anything more onerous than people having to show passports at the border control, which doesn't take much time and isn't too onerous.
As for EU, I think that will be done in multiple steps:
(1) Scotland still part of the UK trading system
(2) Scotland leaves UK trading system, joins EFTA
(3) Scotland rejoins EU
All of these will have transitional periods between them, If this is done sensible, there will be minimal disruption. By the Times Scotland rejoins EU -- late 2020s probably -- the rules between UK and EU will have been fully worked out and so not likely to change much.
> because I'm assuming maximal incompetence and spite on behalf of the Tory government
Maybe. I think and hope they won't be. But if they are, we'll weather the storm and I'd put up with temporary hardship to be free from them.
> it would be personally inconvenient for me and my friends if there was an England-Scotland border requiring passport checks
I have friends and family in England so it would be for me too. I doubt the inconvenience will be too much.
It is very likely there would be no physical checks for goods at the actual border and many of the checks will be done via various electronic means. The border will be there but open for unchecked travel to British citizens as there is no reason why Scotland can’t negotiate to remain part of the Common Travel Area in exactly the same way as Ireland has, even post Brexit. Remember a significant proportion of our trade with the rUK is services not goods.