Hi Pontifex! Found your blog from Scott's 2021 prediction grading. I think it's great that you've publicly committed to these predictions along with their probabilities, and using them to calibrate how good at forecasting you are.
What do you think about setting up prediction markets for each one? I'm one of the founders at http://manifold.markets/, and I think it'd be a cool experience for your readers (and the general public!) to come and bet on each of these predictions, using play money. If you're interested, feel free to get in touch at akrolsmir@gmail.com
Predictions for 2022
Hi Pontifex! Found your blog from Scott's 2021 prediction grading. I think it's great that you've publicly committed to these predictions along with their probabilities, and using them to calibrate how good at forecasting you are.
What do you think about setting up prediction markets for each one? I'm one of the founders at http://manifold.markets/, and I think it'd be a cool experience for your readers (and the general public!) to come and bet on each of these predictions, using play money. If you're interested, feel free to get in touch at akrolsmir@gmail.com