Hi Pontifex! Found your blog from Scott's 2021 prediction grading. I think it's great that you've publicly committed to these predictions along with their probabilities, and using them to calibrate how good at forecasting you are.
What do you think about setting up prediction markets for each one? I'm one of the founders at http://manifold.markets/, and I think it'd be a cool experience for your readers (and the general public!) to come and bet on each of these predictions, using play money. If you're interested, feel free to get in touch at akrolsmir@gmail.com
Hi Pontifex! Found your blog from Scott's 2021 prediction grading. I think it's great that you've publicly committed to these predictions along with their probabilities, and using them to calibrate how good at forecasting you are.
What do you think about setting up prediction markets for each one? I'm one of the founders at http://manifold.markets/, and I think it'd be a cool experience for your readers (and the general public!) to come and bet on each of these predictions, using play money. If you're interested, feel free to get in touch at akrolsmir@gmail.com
Hi Austin, that sounds a great idea. I'll send you an email with my thoughts in more detail.