Prospects for Scottish independence
let's get rid of Westminster
Recent opinion polls have enhanced prospects for Scottish independence:
A poll on an independence referendum puts YES in a massive 11 point lead
A poll for the 2026 election to the Scottish parliament, giving pro-independence parties a big majority
UK-wide polling suggests Reform UK might win an overall majority in the UK parliament
Indyref poll
The National writes (archived) that an opinion poll gives YES an 11 point lead:
SCOTLAND would vote for independence by a significant majority were a second referendum held tomorrow. [With don't-knows removed,] 56% of Scottish voters said they would back independence against 44% who said they would vote for the Union.
I pointed out at the start of this year that both Labour and the Tories are seen to have failed, so support for independence is bound to rise. Looks like I got that one right.
The polling took place before the UK government saved the Scunthorpe steelworks in England but not Grangemouth oil refinery in Scotland, which is likely to move public opinion further in the direction of independence.
@colz261 on X posted this graphic, which sums it up well:
Holyrood election poll
A separate article (archived) in The National lists an opinion poll for the 2026 election to the Scottish parliament in Holyrood:
The vote shares were as follows (the first column is the constituency vote share, the second is the regional top-up vote share):
Const List
SNP 35 25
Green 9 14
Alba 3 7
Labour 15 15
Con 12 15
LibDem 12 12
Reform 12 10(I have a post explaining how the AMS system works in Scottish parliamentary elections)
Plugging these numbers into Election Polling's Scottish Parliament Swingometer, we get:
Const Const List List Total
Vote% Seats Vote% Seats Seats
SNP 35 57 25 0 57
Green 9 1 14 14 15
Alba 3 0 7 7 7
Labour 15 3 15 11 14
Con 12 7 15 8 15
LibDem 12 5 12 8 13
Reform 12 0 10 8 8Overall the pro-independence parties (SNP, Greens, Alba) win 79 of the 129 seats, with anti-independence parties (Labour, Con, Reform, LibDem) winning the other 50, so that's a 29 seat majority.
Note that despite getting a quarter of the list vote, the SNP win no list seats at all. This is because the list seats are allocated as top-up seats to increase proportionality: as the SNP have already won more than 25% of the total seats with just their constituency seats, they don't get any top-up seats. (I explain this in more detail in my article on AMS). This is not unusual. In 2021, The SNP only won 2 list seats despite getting over 40% of the list vote. And in 2016, the SNP won 41.7% of the list vote and only got 4 seats.
If the SNP didn't stand in the regions...
What if the SNP didn't stand in the regional lists and only contested the constituencies? We've seen earlier that the SNP are likely to win very few (or no) list seats, and other indy parties, not burdened by having won so many constituency seats, might do better.
So assuming the SNP's 25% voter share is split equally between the Greens and Alba, and putting those numbers into the swingometer, we get:
Const Const List List Total
Vote% Seats Vote% Seats Seats
SNP 35 57 0 0 57
Green 9 1 26.5 19 20
Alba 3 0 19.5 15 15
Labour 15 3 15 7 10
Con 12 7 15 4 11
LibDem 12 5 12 3 8
Reform 12 0 10 8 8Now the pro-indy parties win 92 seats whereas the anti-indy parties are down to a measly 37 seats. So if the SNP don't stand in the lists, independence could win an extra 13 seats.
Reform set to win Westminster
Looking at the last 9 opinion polls for the next general election, in 6 of them Reform UK are first and in the other three they are equal first with Labour. Furthermore, today (Thursday 1 May 2025) there are local elections in England and also a parliamentary by-election in Runcorn and Helsby. Reform are likely to do well in both.
The graph above shows Reform (light blue) overtaking Labour (red) in opinion polls.
Why are Reform doing well?
So why are Reform doing so well at the polls? I think the main reasons are that the Tories are seen to have failed when they ruled from 2010-2024, and Labour are failing from 2024 onwards.
One of the reasons Labour are unpopular is the "Two Tier Keir" factor where labour are seen to care more about foreigners than the do about British people, and within British people, to care more about ethnic minorities than native whites.
Two recent stories suggest why people think Starmer is "Two Tier Keir":
(1) Small boat migrant avoids jail after punching female police officers. Tariku Hadgu, an Ethiopian asylum seeker who arrived in the UK in a small boat in 2022, repeatedly punched two female police officers and had to be dragged off them by a member of the public. He was given a suspended sentence. He should've been immediately deported, as should all foreign violent criminals, and if they object to deportation, shoot them instead.
(2) Starmer to rent homes for Channel migrants:
The Home Office has launched a drive for landlords to house asylum seekers following a surge in Channel migrant crossings. Serco, one of three private contractors working for the Home Office, is offering landlords five-year guaranteed full rent deals to house asylum seekers at the taxpayer’s expense.
This both costs the British people money, and makes housing scarcer because British people will no longer be living in these properties.
Reform UK and Scotland
While Reform are popular in England they are a good deal less popular in Scotland. And their leader, Nigel Farage, is also unpopular in Scotland. It may well be that at the next general election, Reform will win an overall majority, but zero seats in Scotland and may thus end up ruling us without our consent. Worse, because Reform would have no seats in Scotland, Scots wouldn't be able to vote them out. This is clear undemocratic, as Scotland should be ruled according to the will of the Scottish people, and not by English MPs we didn't elect and can't get rid of.
Reform are hostile to Scottish devolution (let along independence) and in power may well try to curtail the rights of the Scottish Parliament.
All of this makes independence more urgent.
Summary
Scots are increasing thinking that getting rid of the Tories was not enough. It didn't reverse the UK's decline, nor has it stopped Westminster from being hostile to Scotland, as is evidenced by Labour closing Scotland's only oil refinery in Grangemouth while saving the steel plant in Scunthorpe.
Instead we need to get rid of Westminster entirely. This is even more urgent as Reform UK are likely to do well at the next general election and they are even more hostile to Scotland than the Tories or Labour.
Good luck to you, Scots.
"Prospects for Scottish independence"? After today's local elections, if Starmer carries on as Labour leader, I'd say the chances are very high indeed. Thanks for this Pontifex :o)