Scotland could become independent following the 2029 election

independence might come sooner than many think

I'm optimistic

Jim Sillars recently wrote:

In England, and among Scottish Unionists, the year 2024 was when independence was declared dead. For them the July election massacre of the SNP was the end to Alex Salmond’s dream. They are wrong. I am heading to 2025 in optimistic mood, and I have sound reasons for being so.

[...] Remember 2014? The unionist case was that for survival Scotland had to shelter, and be financially fed, by the big economically powerful UK. That case is no longer tenable.

The Royal family is no longer on a deferential pillar, more like an unfolding worn at the edges soap opera, providing pages of gossip for the tabloid press. Parliament is a diminished institution with its members subject to ethical judgement by outside bodies, able to effectively dismiss them, a power held previously only by the electors in a constituency. The armed forces are hollowed out. The Metropolitan Police, once the gold standard, is riddled with corruption and bad characters. The Church of England is no longer able to give a moral guide, and is in disgrace. The BBC lives in a metropolitan bubble divorced from the rest of the country, losing license fee payers and audiences. Its universities are more concerned with self-flagellation over its long gone empire than a commitment to intellectual rigour and free speech, and are in hock to foreign countries and the students they send them.

Then there is the economy and the social structure it can no longer support. Major components of its economy from water companies to ports and airports are foreign owned. It is regularly described as broke and broken, noted for its low growth, stagnant wages and expansion of food banks. That big powerful economy that Scotland was supposed to shelter under doesn’t exist.

The July election results were a setback for the indy cause, with the SNP only winning 9 seats and 30% of the vote.

However, like Jim, I'm entering 2025 in an optimistic mood. Why? Because Labour have fucked up, they are incompetent and unpopular, just like the Tories were, and as a result Scottish voters are going to turn to independence as the solution to Westminster's incompetence and nastiness.

Here's how it might play out...

The 2026 Holyrood election

The next Scottish parliamentary election is due in 2026.

Let's assume that Labour continue to be unpopular, and that right wing parties such as the Tories or Reform UK continue to be unattractive to the Scottish electorate.

In this situation, the SNP and other pro-independence parties would look set to do very well. So let's assume they hold the election as a de facto referendum, with the SNP making it known that a vote for them is to be taken as a vote/mandate for independence, and get just over half the vote and a majority of seats.

Following this win, the incoming SNP government asks the UK government for an independence referendum, and the UK government refuse it, as they are very likely to do.

The next Westminster election

The next Westminster election has to happen at the latest by 9 Aug 2029, assuming it is held on a Thursday, which is traditional but not mandated by law. It will probably be held during the summer of 2029, because the polls in 2028 will probably be too unfavourable to Labour for them to hold it then. Why do I think that? Because I think it's unlikely Labour will have made enough headway in dealing with the UK's problems, specifically:

• building houses

• reducing immigration

• enabling lower house prices, which requires building lots of houses plus reducing immigration

• achieving lower electricity and gas prices

Matt Goodwin recently posted this UK-wide poll:

What if the next election turned out like this, and also the SNP did well in Scotland? I plugged these figures into Electoral Calculus, giving the SNP 50% of the vote which is the same as they got in 2015.

And got this result:

Now obviously it won't happen exactly like this poll. But something similar to this, where no party is close to an overall majority, and the SNP do well, gaining half the votes and almost all the seats, is likely.

The big parties (Labour, Conservatives and Reform) would be looking for coalition partners and the SNP with c. 50 seats would be well placed to be one. Their condition for a coalition (or even a confidence and supply deal) would be an independence referendum.

But what if the SNP don't form part of a coalition, some other group of parties do? Then the situation would be:

• Supporters of Scottish independence would have won two consecutive elections, with a majority of the vote, on a manifesto saying that a vote for them is a vote for independence.

• Westminster would have denied independence or an indyref in 2026.

• The Scottish government could make a credible case that independence is the will of the Scottish people and that Westminster is denying them that.

• There would be a rickety coalition in power at Westminster; if it results in chaotic government, that increases support for indy.

In these circumstances Scotland would be able to go to the EU and the USA and ask them to pressure the UK government into allowing Scotland to choose whether to stay in their union. Something similar happened after Brexit, when both the EU and the USA successfully pressured Britain to not have a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland but to instead have customs controls between Northern Ireland and Great Britain.

The 2030 independence referendum

Either way, that leads to an independence referendum, which might be held in 2030.

Then Scotland's future will be in the hands of the Scottish people. Will we choose wisely, or will we fail to seize our opportunity as we did in 2014?

I asked Bing to envisage what Scots celebrating victory would look like:

The prompt was "Scots celebrating their new independence with flags and fireworks", but Bing decided that Scots celebrating means large quantities of alcohol. I'm sure Bing is right.

Factors leading to independence

If Scotland does become independent following the 2029 general election, why will it happen? Or to put it another way, what factors need to be in place to ensure independence? Identifying what these are will help us to achieve indy. So here's my list of the most important factors:

(1) A majority of Scots must favour independence. In 2014 we won the hearts of most voters, but not the heads. Many voters thought "independence would be nice, but it's safer to stick with the UK which is large and can protect Scotland's economy." But now, the UK is increasing looking like a middle-income country on a downward spiral.

(2) Independence supporters must see it as a priority. This means they will correctly see independence as a necessary part of Scotland's renewal, and vote for pro-independence parties, at all elections. Also, Nigel Farage is a lot more popular in England than in Scotland, and the prospect of England electing him prime minister is likely to make many Scots see independence as a priority.

(3) A majority of voters must vote for independence in successive elections. If we achieve the first two points, this follows naturally. These can be both Holyrood general elections of Westminster ones. Furthermore, they must be seen to be votes for independence, that is to say pro-indy parties must say "a voter for us is a vote for indy". This means that the Westminster parties cannot doubt that Scots are expressing a desire for indy.

Following this, Westminster may grant us an indyref, but most probably will refuse to, since they will be scared of losing. If they refuse, Scotland goes to the international community -- primarily the EU and USA, since they are the most important countries -- and puts its case to them.

Which leads us to our last point:

(4) The international community must be persuaded of the justice of Scotland's cause and that Scottish independence is in their own country's interest. Obviously, other countries are much more likely to support Scottish independence if they gain from it. It helps here that it is SNP policy for Scotland to join the EU and NATO.