" So let's assume they hold the election as a de facto referendum, with the SNP making it known that a vote for them is to be taken as a vote/mandate for independence, and get just over half the vote and a majority of seats."
Sounds simple, but is far from it. Roughly 1/3 Indy supporters are not SNP, and many of those vote for a unionist party. You're asking them to vote for a different party than they would normally do.
This also needs to be pro-Indy because you won't get solid Scot Green voters voting for the SNP, let alone all the others that are pro-indy.
And are you going by constituency vote, regional vote or total votes?
These complications are why this will not happen. This is why the SNP shied away from it at GE2024, which in turn is also why many stayed at home because they never explained themselves. Many took them to be gutless and not worth voting for at Westminster - even though their policy of getting right of Indyref by lobbying Westminster needs the MPs you're talking about now for 2029.
The SNP made a terrible hash of GE2024 and need to learn that losing so many MPs was more their own fault than down to the desire to get rid of the Tories by voting Labour. In Scotland you don't need to switch from the SNP to do that, so this claim is a smokescreen to cover up that the SNP botched things. GTTO is at best a partial explanation for losing 39 MPs.
The SNP are polling higher on the back of Labour doing what they said they would do and the electorate - not known for being that familiar with the details of manifestos - are now catching on to Labour being... well... red Tories.
The SNP have made a couple of good budget decisions, but they will need to show more steel between now and SP2026 to keep polling on the up. And I don't see them calling this election as a de facto referendum.
They will look for this to springboard them to GE2029 and lobby for the right to have Indyref.
However, within the timeline of this UK Parliament, the newly formed Scottish Liberation Movement will make the case that we a colony and therefore entitled to decolonise - and with that the right of having our own referendum.
The UK will not give up Scotland unless their hand is forced - and this can do that because it will have the UN behind it, to which the UK is a signed-up member.
So I have a similar timeline to yours for Indy, but the SNP's role will essentially be to keep up the political pressure on Westminster. It will be the Salvo/Liberation Scotland initiative that cracks the nut.
"If people vote for a unionist party, that's what they'll get. If people want indy, they should vote for it."
Many will only vote Yes at a referendum. Some are as tribal about their party as football supporters are about their team. They will not vote for another party.
You think the SNP didn't go with the simpler election in 2024 because they thought they would lose? I think they couldn't tell one way or the other because they have no real idea how many people would vote pro-Indy in a de facto referendum by voting against their usual party. And these voters could have made the difference between winning or losing, depending on their choice.
Polling was suggesting it was still close overall but only with a binary question.
The SNP are too timid to risk this. They won't call a de facto referendum. Their policy is to get Indyref devolved, as it was at GE2024. They aren't going to U-turn from that. The SNP will continue to cheerlead for Holyrood seats and rally Indy support behind themselves for that, but they won't make any specific claims about how they intend to get Indy. This is because they know from GE2024 that telling the movement that their plan, which is to keep on bothering Westminster to devolve Indyref, does not inspire support or get people to the polling booth. It may actually be the best thing they, as a political party, can do - but it isn't sexy or inspirational.
But also, yes, their own performance should have also indicated that they were going to get a pasting. They failed to give their own support a reason to turn out for them, so they got hit even harder than they otherwise might have. They should have come away with at least 20 seats. But to fall to just 9!
These are the same people that they are going into SP2026 with. Unless they start to demonstrate that they have learned lessons in the last few years, and show some steel, they will not inspire confidence and will struggle to maintain the pro-Indy Scot Parly.
> Many will only vote Yes at a referendum. Some are as tribal about their party as football supporters are about their team. They will not vote for another party.
I will vote for pro-indy parties at every single election. If others chose not to, that is up to them but I think they are misguided.
Overall, the electorate is a lot less tribal about who it votes for today than in the past.
> Unless they start to demonstrate that they have learned lessons in the last few years, and show some steel, they will not inspire confidence and will struggle to maintain the pro-Indy Scot Parly.
You may be right. The SNP aren't perfect, at least not in my opinion. And, because they have been in power for ages, they are looking rusty.
I really hope this happens for Scotland.
This is where you lost me:
" So let's assume they hold the election as a de facto referendum, with the SNP making it known that a vote for them is to be taken as a vote/mandate for independence, and get just over half the vote and a majority of seats."
Sounds simple, but is far from it. Roughly 1/3 Indy supporters are not SNP, and many of those vote for a unionist party. You're asking them to vote for a different party than they would normally do.
This also needs to be pro-Indy because you won't get solid Scot Green voters voting for the SNP, let alone all the others that are pro-indy.
And are you going by constituency vote, regional vote or total votes?
These complications are why this will not happen. This is why the SNP shied away from it at GE2024, which in turn is also why many stayed at home because they never explained themselves. Many took them to be gutless and not worth voting for at Westminster - even though their policy of getting right of Indyref by lobbying Westminster needs the MPs you're talking about now for 2029.
The SNP made a terrible hash of GE2024 and need to learn that losing so many MPs was more their own fault than down to the desire to get rid of the Tories by voting Labour. In Scotland you don't need to switch from the SNP to do that, so this claim is a smokescreen to cover up that the SNP botched things. GTTO is at best a partial explanation for losing 39 MPs.
The SNP are polling higher on the back of Labour doing what they said they would do and the electorate - not known for being that familiar with the details of manifestos - are now catching on to Labour being... well... red Tories.
The SNP have made a couple of good budget decisions, but they will need to show more steel between now and SP2026 to keep polling on the up. And I don't see them calling this election as a de facto referendum.
They will look for this to springboard them to GE2029 and lobby for the right to have Indyref.
However, within the timeline of this UK Parliament, the newly formed Scottish Liberation Movement will make the case that we a colony and therefore entitled to decolonise - and with that the right of having our own referendum.
The UK will not give up Scotland unless their hand is forced - and this can do that because it will have the UN behind it, to which the UK is a signed-up member.
So I have a similar timeline to yours for Indy, but the SNP's role will essentially be to keep up the political pressure on Westminster. It will be the Salvo/Liberation Scotland initiative that cracks the nut.
Ideally all the pro-indy parties should get together and have identical wording for the de facto referendum.
> Roughly 1/3 Indy supporters are not SNP, and many of those vote for a unionist party.
If people vote for a unionist party, that's what they'll get. If people want indy, they should vote for it.
> This is why the SNP shied away from it at GE2024
I think the reason they didn't do it in the GE is they expected to do badly. In 2026 the expectation will be different.
> It will be the Salvo/Liberation Scotland initiative that cracks the nut.
As long as we get indy, I'm happy whatever the route taken.
"If people vote for a unionist party, that's what they'll get. If people want indy, they should vote for it."
Many will only vote Yes at a referendum. Some are as tribal about their party as football supporters are about their team. They will not vote for another party.
You think the SNP didn't go with the simpler election in 2024 because they thought they would lose? I think they couldn't tell one way or the other because they have no real idea how many people would vote pro-Indy in a de facto referendum by voting against their usual party. And these voters could have made the difference between winning or losing, depending on their choice.
Polling was suggesting it was still close overall but only with a binary question.
The SNP are too timid to risk this. They won't call a de facto referendum. Their policy is to get Indyref devolved, as it was at GE2024. They aren't going to U-turn from that. The SNP will continue to cheerlead for Holyrood seats and rally Indy support behind themselves for that, but they won't make any specific claims about how they intend to get Indy. This is because they know from GE2024 that telling the movement that their plan, which is to keep on bothering Westminster to devolve Indyref, does not inspire support or get people to the polling booth. It may actually be the best thing they, as a political party, can do - but it isn't sexy or inspirational.
But also, yes, their own performance should have also indicated that they were going to get a pasting. They failed to give their own support a reason to turn out for them, so they got hit even harder than they otherwise might have. They should have come away with at least 20 seats. But to fall to just 9!
These are the same people that they are going into SP2026 with. Unless they start to demonstrate that they have learned lessons in the last few years, and show some steel, they will not inspire confidence and will struggle to maintain the pro-Indy Scot Parly.
Glad we have the Salvo/Liberation Scotland route.
> Many will only vote Yes at a referendum. Some are as tribal about their party as football supporters are about their team. They will not vote for another party.
I will vote for pro-indy parties at every single election. If others chose not to, that is up to them but I think they are misguided.
Overall, the electorate is a lot less tribal about who it votes for today than in the past.
> Unless they start to demonstrate that they have learned lessons in the last few years, and show some steel, they will not inspire confidence and will struggle to maintain the pro-Indy Scot Parly.
You may be right. The SNP aren't perfect, at least not in my opinion. And, because they have been in power for ages, they are looking rusty.