Scotland's Coming Home to the EU

The path to independence may run through UDI

@Germans4indyref notes a spate of articles in the German press stating that the Scottish government intends to leave the UK and join the EU. Here's one:

The Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is sticking to her plans for Scotland to join the EU. After the independence referendum she is aiming for, she will quickly lead her nation into the European Union, Sturgeon told the world and other European media. "According to recent polls, more than half of Scots want independence. I am confident that the Scots will say yes in the next referendum."

An independent Scotland would then immediately apply for EU membership. In her view, Scotland is "a unique opportunity for rapid accession to the EU". Scotland's accession is "not an enlargement". After all, as part of the United Kingdom, Scotland had been a member for over 40 years. "Scotland is coming home [my emphasis], this is not a new beginning."

However the path to independence may not be a straight one. Even if the SNP, alone or together with other pro-independence parties such as the SGP, wins a massive majority in the May 2021 elections to the Scottish parliament, the UK government may simply refuse to hold an independence referendum, or otherwise thwart Scotland’s desire for freedom. It is very likely they will come up with some shenanigans, so Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP must be prepared.

If the SNP wins big in May 2021, Sturgeon goes to Westminster and asks “Indyref2, please”, Westminster will very probably start off by saying “No, the 2014 referendum was once-in-a-lifetime, no indyref2 for you, go back home you unruly peasants”. We cannot simply accept this and walk back with our tail between our legs. Against Westminster intransigence, the option of UDI must be something the SNP is willing to consider. How could this be best achieved? The SNP in their manifesto should say something like this:

The May 2021 election is a referendum on independence. A vote for the SNP is a vote for independence. If we win a majority of the seats and votes, we will declare Scotland’s desire for independence the day after the election and seek to negotiate with Westminster to bring that about. If Westminster insist on indyref2, to be held later this year, we will be happy to oblige them with that. But if they refuse us, the Westminster regime will be refusing to respect the democratic will of the people have proved itself to be an enemy of democracy.

We will have a mandate to unilaterally declare our independence and that is what we will do. If the UK is still intransigent we will call on all our friends throughout the world to put pressure on the Westminster regime.

This might include demonstrations outside UK embassies throughout the world; it also might include economic sanctions against Westminster — we could ask states and companies to refuse to trade with them.

It is quite likely that many people in Germany, the EU and throughout the world will support our fight for freedom, and we must make full use of that resource. And when we do win our freedom, we must not forget those who stood with us in our hour of need. Nor should we forget those who didn’t.

We are very close to independence — 17 opinion polls in a row show a majority for it. But we are not quite there yet. The biggest obstacle is Westminster, and we must have an answer to the question “what do we do if Westminster says no?”. Scotland needs to have a game plan for what to do in that eventuality. This is my first draft of one.

In that spirit I welcome replies. Let’s together plan for our response to Westminster’s likely intransigence.